AUD/USD Slides Below 0.70 as Traders Brace for US Jobs Data

Market mover Bearish bias Nov 5, 2026, 17:33 UTC

Oliver HayesMarket Risk Analyst · ForexR analyst

AUD/USD has fallen 0.7% on the day, a move 1.1 times its average daily range, and now trades between S2 and S1 ahead of tomorrow's US jobs data. The daily, four-hour and one-hour trends are all pointing down.

A Move Beyond the Average Range

AUD/USD is changing hands at 0.69545 during the New York session, down 0.7% on the day after slipping from the previous close at 0.70033. The pair has traveled 1.1 times its average daily range today, a scale of move that stands out against a typical session. The day's range has stretched from the day high at 0.70235 to the day low at 0.69474, comfortably wider than usual.

That range works out to roughly 167% of the 14-day ATR of 45.6 pips, underscoring how far this session has already traveled versus the norm. Traders sizing positions into a day like this may find it useful to run the numbers through a position size calculator or weigh the distance to key levels with a risk-reward calculator.

What's in the Newsflow

Coverage today centers on the Australian dollar's struggle to hold above the 0.7000 handle, with FX Street framing hesitation there against a backdrop of a dovish Reserve Bank of Australia stance running up against broader US dollar softness. FXEmpire's watch-list commentary groups AUD/USD alongside other major pairs as one to track into the close. None of this newsflow proves today's decline; it describes the talking points traders are weighing, not a confirmed cause.

News volume around the pair is running at 129% of its 90-day average, and the opportunity read on AUD/USD sits at -14, a neutral reading, though an alert flagged a swing from a neutral 5 to a bearish -18 reading in the past 24 hours. This reflects the tone of coverage and an independent opportunity score, not trader positioning or a forecast.

Where Price Sits Among the Levels

Price is currently positioned between S2 at 0.6924 and S1 at 0.69637. The nearest support is the previous day low at 0.69528, just 1.7 pips away, while the nearest resistance is S1 at 0.69637, 9.2 pips above current levels. The daily pivot sits higher still at 0.69924.

Zooming out, the 5-day range runs from a low of 0.69528 to a high of 0.7067, while the 20-day range is wider, spanning a low of 0.68932 to a high of 0.7067. The daily trend, four-hour trend and one-hour trend are all pointing down, with price sitting below both the 20-day and 50-day EMAs on the daily chart and below the 200-day EMA as well. For readers mapping these levels themselves, the pivot points guide explains how the daily pivot and its surrounding levels are built.

Two Paths From Here

A break above R1 at 0.70321 would open the way toward R2 at 0.70608, a move that would need to clear roughly 28.7 pips to reach that target; a slide back below the daily pivot at 0.69924 would invalidate that bullish case.

On the other side, a break below S2 at 0.6924 would open the door to S3 at 0.68953, also a span of about 28.7 pips; a recovery back above the daily pivot at 0.69924 would undercut that bearish scenario instead.

CFTC data as of the week to October 27 showed large speculators net short AUD/USD, with speculators adding to that net short position versus the prior week. This is a snapshot of futures positioning from over a week ago, not a signal for where price goes next.

What's Scheduled Next

The New York session runs until it closes at 21:00 UTC. Tomorrow brings a dense calendar out of the US: a Fed's Williams speech, then Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings on both a monthly and yearly basis, the Unemployment Rate, the Labor Force Participation Rate and the U6 Underemployment Rate, all due at 13:30 UTC, followed by the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and related inflation-expectation readings at 15:00 UTC, and a Fed's Bowman speech later in the day. Readers tracking how these releases tend to shift volatility can look over the economic calendar guide.

Bottom Line

AUD/USD has made an outsized move for the day, pulling back from a previous close above 0.70 to trade between S2 and S1, with trend readings aligned lower across daily, four-hour and one-hour timeframes. The setup leaves two clearly defined paths — toward R2 on a break of R1, or toward S3 on a break of S2 — with the daily pivot marking the line that would undo either case, all ahead of a heavy slate of US data due tomorrow. For a closer look at how the pair's pivots are tracking in real time, see the live AUD/USD rate and chart.