AUD/USD Forecast Today: Bounce Stalls Below 0.7000 Pivot

Daily outlook Neutral bias Nov 4, 2026, 06:54 UTC

Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst

AUD/USD trades at 0.69822, up 0.26% on the day, caught between the daily pivot at 0.69758 and R1 at 0.69908 as traders await US ADP and ISM Services PMI releases.

AUD/USD Holds Below 0.7000 After A Modest Asia Bounce

AUD/USD trades at 0.69822 in the Asia session, up 0.26% on the day (0.00182), having opened at 0.69637 and ranged between a day low of 0.69528 and a day high of 0.69848. That keeps the pair above the previous close at 0.6964 but still under the 0.7000 handle. London opens at 07:00 UTC, so the price action so far still reflects Asia-session trade rather than the broader liquidity that follows.

The day's range of 32 pips covers about 73% of the 14-day ATR of 43.8 pips, leaving a meaningful share of the pair's typical daily movement still to play out once London and the New York session get underway.

Trend And Momentum: Daily And H4 Point Lower, H1 Mixed

The daily trend remains down, with price below the 20-day EMA at 0.70062, the 50-day EMA at 0.70268, and the 200-day EMA at 0.69893. The four-hour trend is also down, holding under its 20-period EMA at 0.69949 and 50-period EMA at 0.70073. The one-hour trend, by contrast, is mixed, oscillating around its 20-period EMA at 0.69731 and 50-period EMA at 0.69862 — a sign the Asia bounce has not yet pulled the shortest-term picture into line with the higher timeframes.

The daily RSI(14) reads 41.9, below the midpoint but away from any extreme. Over five days the pair is down 0.59%, while the 20-day change is close to flat at +0.03%. With the daily and four-hour charts aligned lower but the one-hour chart undecided, momentum across timeframes is split rather than pointing one way.

Levels That Matter Near 0.7000

Price sits between the daily pivot at 0.69758, the nearest support and only 6.4 pips below, and R1 at 0.69908, the nearest resistance and 8.6 pips above. Further out, the pivot grid lists R2 at 0.70177 and R3 at 0.70327 above, with S1 at 0.69489, S2 at 0.69339 and S3 at 0.6907 below. These levels follow the standard daily pivot point method, which can be checked against any session with the pivot point calculator.

The previous day, November 3, produced a high of 0.70026 and a low of 0.69607, a range of 41.9 pips, and closed at yesterday's close of 0.6964. The five-day range runs from a low of 0.69607 to a high of 0.7067, while the wider 20-day range spans a low of 0.68932 to that same high of 0.7067. The nearest round number below current price is 0.695, with 0.7000 the nearest round number above.

Bullish And Bearish Scenarios

On the bullish path, a sustained push through R1 at 0.69908 would open the door to R2 at 0.70177, a gain of 26.9 pips from trigger to target; a slide back under the daily pivot at 0.69758 would call that case into question.

On the bearish path, a break under S1 at 0.69489 would shift focus toward S2 at 0.69339, 15 pips lower; reclaiming the daily pivot at 0.69758 would undercut that view. Either scenario can be sized against account risk with the risk and reward calculator.

What Could Move AUD/USD Today

The US calendar is heavy today. The MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate for the week of October 30 lands at 12:00 UTC, previous 7.37%. ADP Employment Change for October follows at 13:15 UTC, previous 90K versus an estimate of 69K. At 13:30 UTC, trade figures arrive together: imports (previous 420.8B, estimate 429.1B), exports (previous 315.2B, estimate 320.3B) and the balance of trade (previous -105.6B, estimate -108B). ISM Services PMI for October is due at 15:00 UTC, previous 54.9 versus an estimate of 54.8, ahead of EIA gasoline and crude oil stock changes at 15:30 UTC. Tomorrow, Australia's own Balance of Trade for September is due at 00:30 UTC, previous 0.495B versus an estimate of 1B.

The newsflow leans on the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest decision: Forex.com and FX Street both pointed to the central bank's cautious, dovish-leaning tone as a drag on the Australian dollar, while Forex.com separately flagged ongoing weakness in the pair even as the dollar eased amid the midterms.

CFTC data as of the week to October 27 put speculators net short AUD/USD; the week-over-week shift shows speculators added to net short AUD/USD versus the prior week. US Treasury yields as of November 3 stood at 4.61% on the 2-year, up 2 basis points, and 4.95% on the 10-year, up 4 basis points, offering context for broader dollar demand rather than a signal for today's session.

Coverage of AUD/USD has also picked up sharply, running at 353% of its 90-day average news volume. The opportunity read stands at -52, a bearish score, after an alert flagged a swing from -63 to 5 within a 24-hour window — a measure of news tone and perceived opportunity, not of trader positioning or a directional call.

Bottom Line

AUD/USD has lifted off the day low but remains capped below 0.7000, with the daily and four-hour trends still pointed down even as the one-hour chart holds a more mixed posture. The pair is boxed between the daily pivot at 0.69758 and R1 at 0.69908, a range that could narrow once the US trade data, ADP report and ISM Services PMI land this afternoon. Both the bullish and bearish paths above remain conditional on those levels giving way, not on today's calendar outcome alone.