RBA Interest Rate Decision
Australia · AUD · next release, past figures and how AUD/USD moved after each one. Times in UTC.
What Is RBA decision?
The Reserve Bank of Australia's Monetary Policy Board sets the cash rate at eight meetings a year. The decision is published at 2:30 p.m. Sydney time and the Governor holds a press conference an hour later.
The Australian dollar reacts to the decision and the statement during the Asian session, and again during the press conference.
Read more: Fundamental Analysis in Forex.
How the Market Moved After the Last Releases
| Instrument | Typical 1h move | Typical 4h move | Largest 1h move | After a figure above estimate | After a figure below estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | 13.2 pips | 6.2 pips | 46.7 pips 3 Feb 2026 | – | – |
| Last 7 measurable releases. "Higher" and "lower" count how the price stood one hour after the release. Rate decisions are usually in line with the estimate, so the statement and press conference drive the move. | |||||
Release History
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Estimate | Surprise | AUD/USD 1h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 29 Sep 2026, 04:30 UTC | 4.6% | 4.6% | 0% | −24 pips |
| Tue 11 Aug 2026, 04:30 UTC | 4.35% | 4.35% | 0% | −2.6 pips |
| Tue 16 Jun 2026, 04:30 UTC | 4.35% | 4.35% | 0% | −13.2 pips |
| Tue 5 May 2026, 04:30 UTC | 4.35% | 4.35% | 0% | −13.5 pips |
| Tue 17 Mar 2026, 03:30 UTC | 4.1% | 4.1% | 0% | −3.3 pips |
| Tue 3 Feb 2026, 03:30 UTC | 3.85% | 3.85% | 0% | +46.7 pips |
| Mon 8 Dec 2025, 21:30 UTC | 3.6% | 3.6% | 0% | −3.5 pips |
| Mon 3 Nov 2025, 21:30 UTC | 3.6% | 3.6% | 0% | – |
RBA decision Previews
Aisha RahmanRBA decision FAQ
When is the next RBA decision release?
The next RBA decision release is scheduled for Tue 3 Nov 2026, 03:30 UTC. Dates come from the economic calendar and can change.
How much does AUD/USD move after RBA decision?
Over the last 7 releases, the typical move in AUD/USD one hour after RBA decision was 13.2 pips, and 6.2 pips after four hours (median sizes, either direction). The largest one-hour move was 46.7 pips on 3 Feb 2026. Past moves are not a forecast of the next release.
What does a figure above or below the estimate mean?
The estimate is the consensus of economists' forecasts before the release. Markets price in that number, so prices react mainly to the surprise: the gap between the actual figure and the estimate, and to revisions of earlier months, rather than to whether the figure is high or low.
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