AUD/USD Forecast Today: Bearish Trend Presses Toward S2 Ahead of

Daily outlook Bearish bias Nov 6, 2026, 07:16 UTC

Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst

AUD/USD trades heavily in the London session, down 0.84% on the day with a confirmed downtrend across all major timeframes. Price tests the immediate S2 support at 0.68573 ahead of the high-impact US Nonfarm Payrolls release.

Intraday Overview: AUD/USD Pullback Accelerates

In the London session, AUD/USD rate, chart and pivots trades at 0.68705, down 0.84% on the day. The pair is positioned between S2 at 0.68573 and S1 at 0.68929, reflecting heavy downward momentum. The day's price action spans between the day high at 0.69412 and the day low at 0.68685, creating a range of 72.7 pips. This already represents 147% of the 14-day Average True Range of 49.5 pips, indicating elevated volatility ahead of the scheduled events as New York joins at 12:00 UTC.

Trend and Momentum

The technical evidence points firmly downward across the evaluated chart horizons. The daily, four-hour, and one-hour timeframes all indicate a down trend, with price currently trading below the daily 200 EMA at 0.699. The shorter-term daily 20 EMA and 50 EMA sit higher at 0.69985 and 0.7022, reinforcing the broader structure. The daily RSI reads 39.3, confirming the downward momentum. Because the daily, H4, and H1 trends completely agree, the immediate directional bias is clearly bearish.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Key Support and Resistance Levels

The nearest support lies at S2 at 0.68573, which is 13.2 pips below the current price. On the upside, the closest resistance is S1 at 0.68929, sitting 22.4 pips away. Yesterday's close settled at 0.69285, following a previous day high at 0.70235 and a previous day low at 0.69226. Zooming out, the 5-day range shows a high of 0.70422 and a low of 0.69226. Over the longer 20-day window, the high rests at 0.7067 and the low at 0.68932. Price is also navigating between the immediate round levels of 0.685 below and 0.69 above.

Bullish vs. Bearish NFP Scenarios for the Aussie Dollar

On the bearish side, a break below the S2 trigger at 0.68573 would open the way to the S3 target at 0.6792. A move back above the daily pivot at 0.69582 would invalidate this setup.

For the bullish scenario, clearing the R1 trigger at 0.69938 opens the path toward the R2 target at 0.70591. This view is invalidated if price moves back below the daily pivot at 0.69582.

Fundamental Drivers: US Nonfarm Payrolls and Fed Speakers in Focus

Today's economic calendar includes a slate of high-impact US data releases, beginning with the Nonfarm Payrolls report at 13:30 UTC. The headline release carries an estimate of 65, up from the previous 29. Concurrent releases include Average Hourly Earnings month-over-month estimated at 0.3% against a previous 0.1%, and year-over-year estimated at 2.9% from a previous 3%. The Unemployment Rate is estimated at 4.2%, matching its prior reading, alongside medium-impact U6 Underemployment and Labor Force Participation data. Later at 15:00 UTC, the high-impact Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to read 48, matching the previous print. Federal Reserve speakers Williams and Bowman are scheduled to speak at 09:30 UTC and 17:15 UTC today.

In the broader newsflow, headlines from publishers such as FX Street and FXEmpire discuss a dovish Reserve Bank of Australia, a domestic housing slump, and US Dollar dynamics as key themes. Media coverage is heavy, showing news volume at 199% of its 90-day average, and the opportunity reading from independent sentiment data is bearish at -17. In the futures market, as of the week to October 27, large speculators added to their net short AUD/USD position. For context on interest rates, US Treasury yields closed on November 5 with the 2-year yield at 4.46%, down 12 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 4.84%, down 6 basis points.

Bottom Line

AUD/USD heads into today's US labor releases with a clear bearish trend across all evaluated timeframes. With price extending past 147% of its typical daily range, the proximity of the S2 support at 0.68573 defines the immediate downside structure.