Why Is AUD/USD Moving Today? Bounce Meets Resistance Near 0.702

Market mover Neutral bias Nov 4, 2026, 10:50 UTC

Oliver HayesMarket Risk Analyst · ForexR analyst

AUD/USD has bounced back above the 0.70 level, up 0.65% on the day, but sits between R1 and R2 with trend readings mixed across daily, four-hour and one-hour charts ahead of today's US ADP and ISM Services releases.

AUD/USD Bounces Back Above 0.70

AUD/USD trades at 0.70096 in the London session, up 0.65% on the day after adding 0.00456 from the previous close at 0.6964. The pair has covered a day range of 68.4 pips between the day low at 0.69528 and the day high at 0.70212, a range that is 156% of the 14-day average true range of 43.8 pips, and the net move on the day is already running at roughly one full average daily range.

The advance has carried the pair back above the 0.70 psychological level, which sat above today's open at 0.69637 before price cleared it; the next round figure above current trade is 0.705. Yesterday's session, dated November 3, closed at 0.6964 inside a range of 41.9 pips between a high of 0.70026 and a low of 0.69607.

Macro Drivers Behind the Move

Newsflow continues to center on the Reserve Bank of Australia, with FX Street and Forex.com both linking recent Aussie dollar softness to this week's rate decision and its less hawkish undertone. Forex.com separately noted AUD/USD staying vulnerable even as the US dollar softens around the midterm elections, while FXEmpire looked at how a cooling property market and a tighter domestic rate backdrop could factor into the currency's path.

Away from the headlines, CFTC data as of the week to October 27 showed large speculators net short AUD/USD, with speculators having added to that net short over the week. US Treasury yields at the November 3 close stood at 4.61% on the 2-year, up 2 basis points, and 4.95% on the 10-year, up 4 basis points, context for dollar demand rather than a cause of today's move.

News coverage volume on AUD/USD is running at 353% of its 90-day average, and the opportunity reading on the pair is now at -6, a neutral score that has moved up from -63 (bearish) in the past 24 hours.

US Data and the Economic Calendar

Today's calendar brings a cluster of high-impact US releases: ADP Employment Change at 13:15 UTC, estimated at 69 versus a previous 90, followed by the S&P Global Composite PMI at 14:45 UTC, estimated at 57.6, matching the previous reading. The ISM Services PMI follows at 15:00 UTC, estimated at 54.8 versus a previous 54.9, alongside its New Orders, Prices Paid and Employment sub-indices. New York joins the session at 12:00 UTC, so all of these releases land during the New York session.

On the Australian side, tomorrow brings Trade Balance data at 00:30 UTC, with the estimate calling for a reading of 1200 against a previous 495, alongside Exports and Imports figures at the same time.

Levels Now

Price sits between R1 at 0.69908 and R2 at 0.70177, with the nearest resistance at R2 at 0.70177, 8.1 pips away, and the nearest support at the previous day high of 0.70026, 7 pips away. The daily pivot sits lower at 0.69758. Working through a pivot point calculator against today's levels, R3 stands at 0.70327 while S1, S2 and S3 sit at 0.69489, 0.69339 and 0.6907 respectively.

Over the 5-day window, AUD/USD has ranged between a high of 0.7067 and a low of 0.69607, while the 20-day window shows the same high of 0.7067 against a lower low of 0.68932. Daily trend readings are mixed, with price above the 200-day EMA at 0.69893 but below the 50-day EMA at 0.70268, while the four-hour and one-hour EMA readings are also mixed; the daily RSI sits at 41.9, below the 50 midpoint. The pair is down 0.2% over 5 days and up 0.42% over 20 days.

Scenarios From Here

A break above R2 at 0.70177 would open the way to R3 at 0.70327, a 15-pip path from trigger to target, invalidated by a slip back below the daily pivot at 0.69758. On the other side, a break below S1 at 0.69489 would open the way to S2 at 0.69339, also a 15-pip path, invalidated by a recovery back above the same daily pivot at 0.69758.

Bottom Line

AUD/USD has already moved roughly a full average daily range today and reclaimed the 0.70 level, but mixed readings across daily, four-hour and one-hour trend measures, a sub-50 daily RSI, and a net short positioning base as of late October leave the broader picture balanced rather than one-sided. With several high-impact US releases due during the New York session, outcomes on either side of the daily pivot at 0.69758 remain open in both directions.