AUD/USD Forecast Today: Downtrend Holds Below 0.7000

Daily outlook Bearish bias Nov 3, 2026, 06:54 UTC

Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst

AUD/USD remains pinned below the 0.7000 handle, with daily, H4 and H1 trends all marked down and price sitting between S1 at 0.69812 and S2 at 0.69668 ahead of US JOLTS data and Australian PMI releases.

Where AUD/USD Stands in the Asia Session

AUD/USD last trades at 0.6979, down 0.24% on the day after slipping from the previous close at 0.69956. The day's range has run from a low of 0.69718 to a high of 0.70026, a spread of 30.8 pips that covers 70% of the 44-pip average true range tracked by the ATR indicator, leaving room for the range to widen further before the day is out.

Trading is underway in the Asia session, with London due to open at 07:00 UTC. Price is positioned between the nearest support, S2 at 0.69668, 12.2 pips below spot, and the nearest resistance, S1 at 0.69812, just 2.2 pips above — the full pivot picture is available on the live AUD/USD rate and chart. That keeps the pair anchored beneath the 0.7000 round number.

Trend and Momentum Across Timeframes

The broader trend is aligned lower across every timeframe. On the daily chart, price sits below the 20-day EMA at 0.70106, the 50-day EMA at 0.70293 and the 200-day EMA at 0.69888, with the daily trend reading as down. The four-hour chart shows the same picture, trading beneath its 20-period EMA at 0.70140 and 50-period EMA at 0.70169 in a down state, and the one-hour chart is likewise below its 20-period EMA at 0.69964 and 50-period EMA at 0.70100, also marked down.

Momentum is not stretched: the 14-day RSI sits at 46.6, a mid-range reading rather than an oversold extreme. Over the past five days AUD/USD is down 0.5%, though it is still up 0.13% across the past 20 days. With daily, H4 and H1 trends all agreeing on direction, there is no split between timeframes to muddy the picture today.

Levels That Matter

The daily pivot stands at 0.70073. Above it, R1 sits at 0.70217, R2 at 0.70478 and R3 at 0.70622 as resistance, and because price is currently just under S1, that level at 0.69812 is also acting as resistance overhead rather than support. Support below is thinner by comparison, with S2 at 0.69668 and S3 at 0.69407 the next levels down — all mapped out on the pivot point calculator.

Yesterday's session, November 2, ran from a high of 0.70334 to a low of 0.69929, a range of 40.5 pips, and closed at 0.69956. Looking further back, the five-day window holds a high of 0.7067 and a low of 0.69929. The 20-day window is wider, spanning a high of 0.7067 down to a low of 0.68932. The round number at 0.7000 sits just above current price, with the next round level below found at 0.6950.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

On the upside, clearing R1 at 0.70217 would open a path toward R2 at 0.70478, a run of 26.1 pips; that case would be undercut by a slide back beneath the daily pivot at 0.70073.

On the downside, a break of S2 at 0.69668 would clear the way to S3 at 0.69407, also a 26.1-pip move; reclaiming the daily pivot at 0.70073 would turn that case aside.

What Could Move AUD/USD Today

The US calendar brings Factory Orders (MoM) at 15:00 UTC, previously 0.1% against an estimate of 1.2%, alongside JOLTS Job Openings at the same hour, previously 7.079 against an estimate of 7.13. Later, at 22:00 UTC, Australia publishes the AiG Industry Index, previously -24.2, together with the S&P Global Composite PMI and Services PMI, both estimated unchanged from previous readings of 47.7 and 47.8.

Newsflow is centered on the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision: Forex.com reports that a non-unanimous board outcome and a less hawkish tone on the outlook capped the currency's reaction even as the central bank raised rates, while ExchangeRates frames coverage around whether domestic inflation still supports further tightening. Separately, FX Street's technical coverage has focused on Elliott Wave patterns and broader chart setups for the pair.

As of the week to October 27, CFTC data showed large speculators holding 30.6% of positions long and 69.4% short, a net short AUD/USD position that speculators added to from the prior week. US Treasury yields at the November 2 close had the 2-year at 4.59%, up 3 basis points, and the 10-year at 4.91%, down 3 basis points, leaving the 2s10s curve at 32 basis points — context for broader dollar demand rather than a signal on its own.

News coverage volume on AUD/USD is running at 165% of its 90-day average. The opportunity read, a separate gauge of trading opportunity rather than a forecast, stands at -7 (neutral) after swinging from -3 to -64 over the past 24 hours.

Bottom Line

AUD/USD is holding below 0.7000 with daily, H4 and H1 trends all pointing lower, and price boxed between S1 at 0.69812 above and S2 at 0.69668 below. The bullish case still needs a clear of R1 at 0.70217, while the bearish case triggers on a break of S2 at 0.69668 toward S3 at 0.69407, with US jobs and factory data due this afternoon and Australian PMIs following into the evening. Anyone mapping either scenario can size it against the day's volatility using the risk and reward calculator.