AUD/USD Forecast Today: Pair Navigates Mixed Trends Above 0.7000

Daily outlook Neutral bias Nov 5, 2026, 07:48 UTC

Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst

AUD/USD trades above 0.7000 as conflicting technical timeframes meet broad US Dollar softness. Today's US labor data will test the pair's near-term resistance levels.

AUD/USD Secures Ground Above 0.7000 in Asia Session

During the Asia session, with London opening at 07:00 UTC, AUD/USD trades at 0.7019, up 0.00157 or 0.22% on the day. The pair has established a daily range between a low of 0.69969 and a high of 0.7021. This 24.1-pip day range represents 53% of the pair's 14-day Average True Range of 45.6 pips. Currently, price sits between the daily pivot at 0.69924 and R1 at 0.70321.

Timeframes Disagree as Momentum Neutralizes

The technical structure presents a conflicted picture across the major timeframes. The daily trend registers a mixed state, with price positioned above the 200-period EMA of 0.699 while facing the 50-period EMA at 0.70259 and the 20-period EMA at 0.70059. The H4 timeframe also reflects a mixed condition. Conversely, the H1 chart shows an upward trend, with its 20-period EMA at 0.70074 and 50-period EMA at 0.7001. The daily RSI sits at 48.8, highlighting a lack of directional momentum. Because the timeframes disagree, the current bias remains neutral.

Evaluating Immediate Support and Overhead Resistance

The nearest resistance is the previous day high at 0.70212, located 2.2 pips away from the current price. The nearest support is the daily pivot at 0.69924, resting 26.6 pips below. Turning to pivot points, further overhead resistance lines up at R1 (0.70321) and R2 (0.70608), while downside support sits at S1 (0.69637) and S2 (0.6924). Yesterday's close recorded 0.70033, framing a previous day high of 0.70212 and a low of 0.69528.

Zooming out to broader windows, the 5-day range spans from a high of 0.7067 to a low of 0.69528. The 20-day range encompasses the same high of 0.7067, reaching down to a low of 0.68932. Institutional round levels are marked below price at 0.7 and above at 0.705.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios for Today's Session

For a bullish setup, a break above R1 at 0.70321 would open the way to R2 at 0.70608. A move back below the daily pivot at 0.69924 would invalidate this view.

On the downside, a break below S1 at 0.69637 would open the way to S2 at 0.6924. A move back above the daily pivot at 0.69924 would invalidate the bearish scenario.

US Labor Data and Shifting Sentiment

Today's economic calendar brings several US releases, beginning with Challenger Job Cuts at 10:30 UTC, following a previous print of 43.281. At 13:30 UTC, Initial Jobless Claims carry an estimate of 196 against a previous 194. Concurrently, Unit Labor Costs are estimated at 0.6 (previously 1.2), alongside Nonfarm Productivity estimated at 2.5 (previously 1.4). The Federal Reserve's Hammack is also scheduled to speak at 13:50 UTC.

US Treasury yields closed on November 4 with the 2-year yield at 4.58%, down 3 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 4.9%, down 5 basis points. In the newsflow, coverage from FX Street, FXEmpire, and Forexcom suggests that broad US Dollar softness is offsetting a dovish Reserve Bank of Australia. The media mood measured by independent data providers shows an opportunity reading with a score of 49 (bullish), alongside news volume running at 129% of the 90-day average.

Positioning data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, as of the week to October 27, shows that large speculators were net short AUD/USD. The report indicates that speculators added to net short AUD/USD, with 69.4% holding short positions.

Bottom Line

AUD/USD navigates mixed technical signals as the market awaits the upcoming US employment data. With the H1 trend pointing up but daily and H4 structures lacking alignment, price action near the previous day high at 0.70212 will test near-term momentum. Operating with defined triggers and invalidation levels is a standard approach in a neutral environment.