Why AUD/USD Is Falling Today Ahead of US Jobs Data

Market mover Bearish bias Nov 6, 2026, 11:23 UTC

Oliver HayesMarket Risk Analyst · ForexR analyst

AUD/USD is down 0.8% on the day and sits between S1 at 0.68929 and S2 at 0.68573, with daily, four-hour and one-hour trends all pointing lower ahead of today's US jobs data.

AUD/USD Drops Below Support as Risk Appetite Fades

AUD/USD trades at 0.68728 during the London session, positioned between the nearest resistance at S1 (0.68929), about 20.1 pips away, and the nearest support at S2 (0.68573), about 15.5 pips away. The pair is down 0.8% on the day, a move of 0.00557 from the previous close at 0.69285 and roughly 1.1 times the average daily range as measured by the 14-day ATR (see our guide to ATR and volatility). Daily, four-hour and one-hour trends are all pointing down, which keeps today's bias bearish.

Today's session opened at 0.69275 and has held between a day high of 0.69412 and a day low of 0.6861, a range of 80.2 pips that already covers about 162% of the 14-day ATR. Yesterday's bar ran from an open at 0.70023 to a close at 0.69285, with a high at 0.70235 and a low at 0.69226, a range of 100.9 pips.

Asian Equity Rout and a Dovish RBA Weigh on the Aussie

The decline follows a broad downturn across Asian equities. Action Forex reported that a bear market in Japan's Nikkei has hit risk-sensitive currencies, with AUD/JPY and AUD/USD breaking technical support as a result. FX Street separately flagged a bearish bias for AUD/USD after it slipped below 0.6900, and earlier noted a dovish Reserve Bank of Australia stance running up against broader US dollar weakness.

Not every headline points the same way. ExchangeRates reported that ING is targeting 0.71 for AUD/USD by the end of 2026, a longer-horizon view sitting alongside the near-term pressure described above.

US Jobs Data and Fed Commentary on Tap Today

A heavy US data slate is due at 13:30 UTC today, including Nonfarm Payrolls (previous 29, estimate 65), Average Hourly Earnings on a monthly basis (previous 0.1%, estimate 0.3%) and a yearly basis (previous 3%, estimate 2.9%), and the Unemployment Rate (previous 4.2%, estimate 4.2%). The Labor Force Participation Rate (previous 61.8%) and the U6 Underemployment Rate (previous 7.6%) land at the same time, followed by the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 15:00 UTC (previous 48, estimate 48) and a speech from the Fed's Bowman at 17:15 UTC.

London is the only session open right now, with New York set to join at 12:00 UTC, well ahead of the 13:30 UTC data (background on reading releases is in our economic calendar guide).

Key AUD/USD Levels: Pivots, 5-Day and 20-Day Extremes

The daily pivot sits at 0.69582, with resistance at R1 0.69938, R2 0.70591 and R3 0.70947, and support at S1 0.68929, S2 0.68573 and S3 0.6792 (map these out with the pivot point calculator). Price sitting between S2 and S1 means the pair has already moved below the daily pivot. Over the past five trading days, AUD/USD has ranged between a high of 0.70422 and a low of 0.69226; over the past 20 days, the range runs from a high of 0.7067 down to a low of 0.68932. The round number at 0.685 sits just below current price, with 0.69 just above.

Scenarios Ahead of US Jobs Data

A recovery back above R1 at 0.69938 would open the way toward R2 at 0.70591, a move of about 65.3 pips; that view would be invalidated by a slide back below the daily pivot at 0.69582.

On the downside, a break through S2 at 0.68573 would put S3 at 0.6792 in view, also roughly 65.3 pips away; a reclaim of the daily pivot at 0.69582 would undercut that case.

Bottom Line

CFTC data as of the week to October 27 show large speculators net short AUD/USD, after adding to that net short AUD/USD position from the week before — a positioning snapshot, not a forecast. US Treasury yields at yesterday's close stood at 4.46% on the 2-year, down 12 basis points, and 4.84% on the 10-year, down 6 basis points, context for the dollar side of the pair rather than a cause of today's move.

News coverage volume on AUD/USD is running at about 199% of its 90-day average, and the opportunity read from an independent sentiment gauge has pulled back sharply, moving from 65 (bullish) to -11 (neutral) within 24 hours and now standing at -13 (neutral) — a measure of coverage tone, not a trading signal.

With trend aligned lower across daily, four-hour and one-hour charts and price wedged between S1 and S2, the picture leans bearish into today's jobs data, though either nearby level breaking would shift that read quickly.