US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
United States · USD · next release, past figures and how EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Gold (XAU/USD), Nasdaq 100 (US100) moved after each one. Times in UTC.
What Is Non-Farm Payrolls?
Non-farm payrolls (NFP) is the monthly change in the number of US jobs outside farming, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation report. It usually comes out on the first Friday of the month at 8:30 a.m. New York time, together with the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings.
It is the most-watched US data release in forex because jobs drive the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. A figure far from the estimate can move the dollar, gold and US stock indices sharply in the first minutes, and earlier months are often revised in the same report.
Read more: Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP).
How the Market Moved After the Last Releases
| Instrument | Typical 1h move | Typical 4h move | Largest 1h move | After a figure above estimate | After a figure below estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 23.8 pips | 23.3 pips | 69.9 pips 5 Jun 2026 | Higher 2, lower 4 of 6 | Higher 4, lower 1 of 5 |
| USD/JPY | 27.5 pips | 26.7 pips | 62.2 pips 2 Jul 2026 | Higher 1, lower 5 of 6 | Higher 1, lower 4 of 5 |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | $29.32 | $24.54 | $104.24 5 Jun 2026 | Higher 2, lower 3 of 5 | Higher 5, lower 0 of 5 |
| Nasdaq 100 (US100) | 130.7 points | 158.8 points | 373.8 points 5 Jun 2026 | Higher 4, lower 1 of 5 | Higher 3, lower 2 of 5 |
| Last 11 measurable releases. "Higher" and "lower" count how the price stood one hour after the release. Rate decisions are usually in line with the estimate, so the statement and press conference drive the move. | |||||
Release History
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Estimate | Surprise | EUR/USD 1h | USD/JPY 1h | Gold 1h | Nasdaq 100 1h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 2 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC | 29K | 90K | −61K | +42.5 pips | −19.8 pips | +$9.76 | +248.7 points |
| Fri 4 Sep 2026, 12:30 UTC | 162K | 56K | +106K | −10.2 pips | −41.9 pips | −$53.46 | +7.8 points |
| Fri 7 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC | -23K | 80K | −103K | +24.4 pips | −59.2 pips | +$26.89 | +63.7 points |
| Thu 2 Jul 2026, 12:30 UTC | 57K | 110K | −53K | +46.9 pips | −62.2 pips | +$71.63 | +220.4 points |
| Fri 5 Jun 2026, 12:30 UTC | 172K | 85K | +87K | −69.9 pips | +30.3 pips | −$104.24 | −373.8 points |
| Fri 8 May 2026, 12:30 UTC | 115K | 62K | +53K | +13.9 pips | −22.8 pips | +$30.24 | +206.9 points |
| Fri 3 Apr 2026, 12:30 UTC | 178K | 60K | +118K | −9.5 pips | −4 pips | – | – |
| Fri 6 Mar 2026, 13:30 UTC | -92K | 59K | −151K | +17.1 pips | −33.3 pips | +$47.14 | −145.2 points |
| Wed 11 Feb 2026, 13:30 UTC | 130K | 70K | +60K | −40.3 pips | −16.1 pips | −$24.09 | +56.2 points |
| Fri 9 Jan 2026, 13:30 UTC | 50K | 60K | −10K | −4.8 pips | +27.5 pips | +$28.40 | −13.2 points |
| Thu 20 Nov 2025, 13:30 UTC | 119K | 50K | +69K | +23.8 pips | −7.7 pips | +$11.28 | +116.1 points |
Non-Farm Payrolls FAQ
When is the next Non-Farm Payrolls release?
The next Non-Farm Payrolls release is scheduled for Fri 6 Nov 2026, 13:30 UTC. Dates come from the economic calendar and can change.
How much does EUR/USD move after Non-Farm Payrolls?
Over the last 11 releases, the typical move in EUR/USD one hour after Non-Farm Payrolls was 23.8 pips, and 23.3 pips after four hours (median sizes, either direction). The largest one-hour move was 69.9 pips on 5 Jun 2026. Past moves are not a forecast of the next release.
How much does USD/JPY move after Non-Farm Payrolls?
Over the last 11 releases, the typical move in USD/JPY one hour after Non-Farm Payrolls was 27.5 pips, and 26.7 pips after four hours (median sizes, either direction). The largest one-hour move was 62.2 pips on 2 Jul 2026. Past moves are not a forecast of the next release.
What does a figure above or below the estimate mean?
The estimate is the consensus of economists' forecasts before the release. Markets price in that number, so prices react mainly to the surprise: the gap between the actual figure and the estimate, and to revisions of earlier months, rather than to whether the figure is high or low.
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