WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) Forecast Today: Price Holds Below $97 Pivot

Daily outlook Neutral bias Nov 3, 2026, 12:35 UTC

Elena MarquezCommodities & Gold Analyst · ForexR analyst

WTI crude trades near $96.377, up 0.99% on the day, but boxed between the daily pivot at $97.169 and S1 at $92.538, with daily, H4 and H1 trends pointing in different directions.

Where WTI Crude Oil Stands Right Now

WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) trades at $96.377, up $0.946 on the day, a gain of 0.99%, during the London and New York overlap. The day's range has run from a low of $95.187 to a high of $97.898, a span of $2.71 that covers 69% of the 14-day Average True Range of $3.92 dollars — a useful gauge when sizing up how far today's move has stretched relative to typical volatility, as explained in the ATR and volatility guide.

Trend And Momentum: Timeframes Disagree

The daily chart describes trend as mixed: the 20-day EMA sits at $97.351 and the 50-day EMA at $93.42, with price trading above the 200-day EMA at $83.475. The H4 chart reads down, with its 20-period EMA at $98.735 below the 50-period EMA at $99.306. The H1 chart is also down, with its 20-period EMA at $96.783 under the 50-period EMA at $98.127. Daily RSI sits at 48.3, close to the midpoint, and with the daily chart mixed while H4 and H1 both lean lower, the picture across timeframes does not line up in one direction.

Levels That Matter For XTI/USD

Price currently sits between S1 at $92.538 and the daily pivot at $97.169. Nearest resistance is the daily pivot at $97.169, $0.79 above the last price, while nearest support is the previous day low at $94.276, $2.10 below. Beyond the pivot, R1 stands at $100.062, R2 at $104.693 and R3 at $107.586; on the downside, S2 sits at $89.645 and S3 at $85.014. The previous day's trading ran from a high of $101.80 to a low of $94.276, a range of $7.52, and closed at $95.431. Over the past five days, WTI has ranged between a high of $104.108 and a low of $94.276; the wider 20-day window stretches from that same high of $104.108 down to a low of $86.296. Round-number levels sit close to the market too, with $96 just below and $96.50 just above the last print. The full set of levels is laid out on the WTI Crude Oil rate and pivots page, and the pivot point calculator can be used to recompute them as price develops.

Bullish And Bearish Scenarios

A bullish path opens if price clears R1 at $100.062, which would put R2 at $104.693 in view; a slide back below the daily pivot at $97.169 would undercut that case. The bearish mirror needs a break under S1 at $92.538, which would open the way toward S2 at $89.645; a recovery back above the daily pivot at $97.169 would invalidate that read. Both paths share the same pivot as their invalidation point, underscoring its role as the line separating the two outlooks.

What Could Move Oil Today

Two US data points land at 15:00 UTC today: Factory Orders (MoM), previously 0.1% against a 1.2% estimate, and JOLTS Job Openings, previously 7.079 million versus a 7.13 million estimate. Oil-specific supply data follows at 21:30 UTC with the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report, previously -2.031 million barrels against an estimate of 2.1 million. Tomorrow brings a denser slate, including:

• ADP Employment Change at 13:15 UTC — previous 90, estimate 69
• S&P Global Composite PMI at 14:45 UTC — previous 57.6, estimate 57.6
• ISM Services PMI at 15:00 UTC — previous 54.9, estimate 54.8
• EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at 15:30 UTC — previous -1.462 million barrels, no estimate given

Newsflow has centered on supply risk: Bloomberg, Reuters and CNBC each pointed to escalating US-Iran tensions after a reported US strike near Iran's Qeshm Island, while Reuters separately flagged a drone-related disruption to the Atyrau-Samara pipeline in Kazakhstan and damage at a refinery in Russia's Yaroslavl region.

In the Commitments of Traders report for the week to October 27, 2026, large speculators held a net long position in WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD), with longs making up 56.3% of speculative contracts against 43.7% short; that net long stood at 74,343 contracts, down from 89,325 the prior week as speculators trimmed the position. US Treasury yields as of November 2 showed the 2-year at 4.59% (up 3 basis points) and the 10-year at 4.91% (down 3 basis points), leaving the 2s10s curve at 32 basis points — context for broader rate expectations rather than a direct driver of oil. News sentiment data shows coverage volume running at 180% of its 90-day average, with the opportunity score at -28, a bearish reading that swung from a neutral 1 to -77 within the past 24 hours.

Bottom Line

WTI sits up on the day but capped under the daily pivot at $97.169, even as H4 and H1 trends point lower and the daily chart remains mixed while holding above the 200-day EMA at $83.475. A move through the pivot or through the previous day low at $94.276 would mark a clearer directional signal, with R1 at $100.062 and S1 at $92.538 the next levels in play beyond those. With timeframes disagreeing and a heavy US data slate running into tomorrow, the setup into today's close reads as two-sided; the risk and reward calculator can help frame either scenario before it develops.