WTI Crude Oil Forecast Today: Oil Drops 3% as Trends Diverge

Daily outlook Neutral bias Nov 2, 2026, 12:35 UTC

Elena MarquezCommodities & Gold Analyst · ForexR analyst

WTI Crude Oil trades near 98.773, down 3.24% on the day, with daily and hourly trends split and the technical bias neutral between S3 at 98.523 and the 5-day low at 98.831.

Market Snapshot: Sharp Pullback During the Overlap Session

WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) trades at 98.773 during the London and New York overlap, down 3.24% on the day after a decline of 3.312 dollars. Price opened the day at 101.419, down from the previous close of 102.085, then ranged between a day high of 101.8 and a day low of 98.249. That day range of 3.55 dollars covers 98% of the 14-day average true range of 3.62.

That places price between S3 at 98.523 and S2 at 100.044. The nearest resistance is the 5-day low of 98.831, just 0.06 dollars above the last price, while the nearest support is S3 at 98.523, 0.25 dollars below it.

Trend and Momentum: Daily Up, Hourly Down

The daily trend remains up, with price holding above the 200-day EMA at 83.337 and the 20- and 50-day EMAs at 97.553 and 93.338; the 14-day RSI reads 64.7. The 4-hour picture is mixed, with its 20-period EMA at 100.881 above the 50-period EMA at 100.2. The 1-hour trend points down, with its 20-period EMA at 100.272 below the 50-period EMA at 101.022.

With the daily, 4-hour and hourly readings not aligned, the technical bias stays neutral. Over a longer lens, price is down 3.85% across the past 5 days but still up 9.34% across the past 20.

Levels That Matter After the Sell-Off

The daily pivot stands at 102.586, with resistance stacked above at R1 (103.607), R2 (105.128) and R3 (106.149), and support below at S1 (101.065) and S2 (100.044); S3 at 98.523 sits closest to current price. The pivot point calculator breaks down how each of these levels is derived.

Yesterday's session (2026-10-30) printed a day high of 104.108 and a day low of 101.566, closing at 102.085. The 5-day range runs from a high of 104.108 to a low of 98.831, while the wider 20-day range spans a high of 104.108 to a low of 86.296. Round-number levels sit nearby too, at 99 above and 98.5 below current price.

Bullish vs Bearish Scenarios for Oil Prices

The bullish case needs a break above R1 at 103.607 to open the way toward R2 at 105.128; a move back below the daily pivot at 102.586 would invalidate that path.

On the downside, clearing S3 at 98.523 would open the way to the next round number at 98.5, with a return above the daily pivot at 102.586 invalidating that setup.

Macro Drivers: ISM Manufacturing and Fed Speak

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is due today at 15:00 UTC, with an estimate of 54.6 against a previous reading of 54.5. Released at the same time are the ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid index, estimated at 77 versus a previous 77.9, along with the New Orders Index (previous 55.3) and Employment Index (previous 52.7). Fed's Goolsbee speaks today at 16:15 UTC, and the Loan Officer Survey follows at 19:00 UTC; tomorrow brings the US Midterm Elections, Factory Orders and JOLTS Job Openings, all worth tracking on an economic calendar.

Newsflow centers on the prospect of an easing Iran-related war premium, as flagged by FXEmpire, CNBC and Reuters, even as Bloomberg and the WSJ point to continued risk around Gulf shipping and the Strait of Hormuz.

Media mood around the pair carries a bearish opportunity reading of -72, with news volume running at 21% of its 90-day average.

Weekly CFTC data as of the week to October 27, 2026 showed large speculators net long WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD), though they trimmed that net long position by 14,982 contracts to 74,343 over the week. US Treasury yields at the close of October 30, 2026 showed the 10-year yield at 4.94%, down 4 basis points, and the 2-year yield at 4.56%, down 5 basis points, as context for the broader rate backdrop.

Bottom Line

WTI Crude Oil has given up 3.24% on the day, with the day's range already matching 98% of the 14-day average true range. The daily trend still sits above the 200-day EMA, but the 4-hour and hourly readings run mixed to down, leaving price boxed between the 5-day low at 98.831 overhead and S3 at 98.523 below. Today's ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC and Fed's Goolsbee speech at 16:15 UTC are the next scheduled inputs that could test either side of that range.