Fed Interest Rate Decision (FOMC)
United States · USD · next release, past figures and how EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Gold (XAU/USD), Nasdaq 100 (US100) moved after each one. Times in UTC.
What Is Fed rate decision?
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sets the US federal funds rate at eight scheduled meetings a year. The statement comes out at 2:00 p.m. New York time on the last day of the meeting, and the Fed Chair's press conference follows at 2:30 p.m.
The rate itself is usually expected, so the market reacts to the statement, the vote, the projections at the quarterly meetings and the tone of the press conference. Moves can come in two waves, at the statement and again during the press conference.
Read more: FOMC Meetings Explained.
How the Market Moved After the Last Releases
| Instrument | Typical 1h move | Typical 4h move | Largest 1h move | After a figure above estimate | After a figure below estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 31.2 pips | 46.2 pips | 67.4 pips 16 Sep 2026 | – | – |
| USD/JPY | 31.3 pips | 40.2 pips | 91.1 pips 16 Sep 2026 | – | – |
| Last 8 measurable releases. "Higher" and "lower" count how the price stood one hour after the release. Rate decisions are usually in line with the estimate, so the statement and press conference drive the move. | |||||
Release History
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Estimate | Surprise | EUR/USD 1h | USD/JPY 1h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 28 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC | 4% | 4% | 0% | +13.2 pips | −18.7 pips |
| Wed 16 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC | 4% | 4% | 0% | −67.4 pips | +91.1 pips |
| Wed 29 Jul 2026, 18:00 UTC | 3.75% | 3.75% | 0% | +56.8 pips | −48 pips |
| Wed 17 Jun 2026, 18:00 UTC | 3.75% | 3.75% | 0% | −55.7 pips | +29.2 pips |
| Wed 29 Apr 2026, 18:00 UTC | 3.75% | 3.75% | 0% | −14.7 pips | +15.8 pips |
| Wed 18 Mar 2026, 18:00 UTC | 3.75% | 3.75% | 0% | −39 pips | +34.4 pips |
| Wed 28 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC | 3.75% | 3.75% | 0% | +19.2 pips | −33.4 pips |
| Wed 10 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC | 3.75% | 3.75% | 0% | +23.4 pips | −14.8 pips |
| Wed 29 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC | 4% | 4% | 0% | – | – |
Fed rate decision Previews
Aisha RahmanFed rate decision FAQ
When is the next Fed rate decision release?
The next Fed rate decision release is scheduled for Wed 9 Dec 2026, 19:00 UTC. Dates come from the economic calendar and can change.
How much does EUR/USD move after Fed rate decision?
Over the last 8 releases, the typical move in EUR/USD one hour after Fed rate decision was 31.2 pips, and 46.2 pips after four hours (median sizes, either direction). The largest one-hour move was 67.4 pips on 16 Sep 2026. Past moves are not a forecast of the next release.
How much does USD/JPY move after Fed rate decision?
Over the last 8 releases, the typical move in USD/JPY one hour after Fed rate decision was 31.3 pips, and 40.2 pips after four hours (median sizes, either direction). The largest one-hour move was 91.1 pips on 16 Sep 2026. Past moves are not a forecast of the next release.
What does a figure above or below the estimate mean?
The estimate is the consensus of economists' forecasts before the release. Markets price in that number, so prices react mainly to the surprise: the gap between the actual figure and the estimate, and to revisions of earlier months, rather than to whether the figure is high or low.
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