WTI Crude Oil Forecast Today: Mixed Signals Near Pivot And S1

Daily outlook Neutral bias Nov 4, 2026, 12:36 UTC

Elena MarquezCommodities & Gold Analyst · ForexR analyst

WTI crude oil is down 2.1% on the day near 94.04, sitting between S1 support at 93.354 and the daily pivot at 95.626; daily trend is mixed while H4 and H1 point lower, keeping the near-term picture balanced.

Where WTI Crude Oil Stands Now

During the London and New York overlap, WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) trades at 94.04, down 2.014 on the day, or 2.1%, pulling back from the previous close at 96.054. The day's range has run from the day low at 93.883 to the day high at 96.31, a spread of 2.43 dollars that covers 61% of the 14-day ATR of 3.99 dollars, so a sizeable share of the usual daily volatility has already been used before London closes at 16:00 UTC. For a live view of price action, see the WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) rate and chart.

Trend And Momentum: Timeframes Diverge

The daily trend reads mixed: price sits above the 200-day EMA at 83.625, a longer-term support point, but below the 20-day EMA at 97.227 and only just above the 50-day EMA at 93.523. The H4 trend points down, with price under both its 20-period EMA at 96.969 and 50-period EMA at 98.353, and the H1 trend is also down, trading beneath its 20-period EMA at 95.215 and 50-period EMA at 96.317. Daily RSI sits at 49.6, a neutral reading that confirms neither strength nor weakness. With the daily picture mixed while the shorter H4 and H1 frames lean lower, the setup does not align cleanly in one direction. Over the past 5 days crude is down 5.52%, while the 20-day change is still positive at 5.42%, showing the recent slide has eaten into, but not erased, the broader advance.

Levels That Matter For WTI Crude Oil

Price is positioned between S1 at 93.354 and the daily pivot at 95.626. The nearest resistance is that daily pivot at 95.626, 1.59 dollars above the last price, while the nearest support is S1 at 93.354, just 0.69 dollars below it. Further out, R1 sits at 98.326, R2 at 100.598 and R3 at 103.298, while below S1, S2 sits at 90.654 and S3 at 88.382. The pivot point calculator can map these levels against other entry points.

Yesterday's session (2026-11-03) opened at 95.379 and closed at 96.054, with a high at 97.898 and a low at 92.926, a range of 4.97 dollars. Over the 5-day window, crude has traded between a high of 104.108 and a low of 92.926. The wider 20-day window shows a high of 104.108 and a low of 87.418, so the 5-day high and the 20-day high coincide at the upper edge of recent trade, while the 20-day low sits well below the 5-day low, marking a deeper floor for the broader window. The last price sits just above the round number at 94, with the next round level at 94.5 overhead.

Bullish Scenario

A break above R1 at 98.326 would open the way toward R2 at 100.598. A move back below the daily pivot at 95.626 would invalidate that path.

Bearish Scenario

A break below S1 at 93.354 would open the way toward S2 at 90.654. A recovery back above the daily pivot at 95.626 would invalidate that path.

What Could Move Oil Today

The calendar is heavy with US releases. ADP Employment Change lands at 13:15 UTC (previous 90, estimate 69), the S&P Global Composite PMI follows at 14:45 UTC (previous and estimate both 57.6), and ISM Services PMI is due at 15:00 UTC (previous 54.9, estimate 54.8), alongside the ISM Services New Orders, Prices Paid and Employment sub-indexes at the same hour (previous readings of 59.8, 74 and 50.1). The EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change, specific to this market, is due at 15:30 UTC (previous -1.462, estimate 0.9). The economic calendar guide explains how to read release timing against previous and estimate figures.

Newsflow today centers on geopolitical supply risk tied to Iran's activity around the Strait of Hormuz and shipping, as flagged by Reuters and WSJ, running alongside broader risk-appetite swings linked to US midterm election results, as covered by WSJ and FXEmpire.

CFTC data for the week to 2026-10-27 show large speculators net long WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD), with longs at 56.3% and shorts at 43.7% of speculative futures positions; over that week, speculators reduced that net long WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) position by 14,982 contracts to 74,343. At the 2026-11-03 close, the 2-year Treasury yield stood at 4.61%, up 2 basis points, the 10-year at 4.95%, up 4 basis points, the 3-month at 4.21%, and the 2s10s curve at 34 basis points; these are context for the dollar backdrop, not a cause of today's move. News volume is running at 156% of its 90-day average, and the opportunity read stands at -82, a bearish score, describing the tone of coverage rather than forecasting price.

Bottom Line

WTI crude oil is down 2.1% on the day and sits between S1 support at 93.354 and the daily pivot at 95.626, with the daily trend mixed even as H4 and H1 point lower. A dense run of US data from 13:15 UTC through 15:30 UTC, alongside Iran-linked supply headlines and midterm-driven risk appetite, leaves the next directional move open in either direction. The risk and reward calculator can help frame either the bullish path toward R1 and R2 or the bearish path toward S1 and S2 against the daily pivot invalidation.