WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) Forecast Today: Above R1

Daily outlook Bullish bias Oct 30, 2026, 12:55 UTC

Elena MarquezCommodities & Gold Analyst · ForexR analyst

WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) is at 103.397 in the London and New York overlap, up 1.32% on the day and between R1 at 103.106 and R2 at 104.166, with daily, H4 and H1 trends all up.

Where WTI stands in the overlap

WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) last traded at 103.397 in the London and New York overlap, with the bid at 103.397 and the ask at 103.437. On the day it is up 1.35 dollars, or 1.32 percent, from the previous close at 102.047. The day low is 101.566, the day open is 101.902 and the day high is 104.081, so the day's range is 2.52 dollars. That range equals 68 percent of the fourteen-day ATR at 3.7 dollars, which is the range check in the ATR and volatility guide. The spread is 0.04 dollars on the live WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) chart.

The last print sits between R1 at 103.106 and R2 at 104.166. Nearest resistance is R2 at 104.166, 0.77 dollars above the last price. Nearest support is the five-day high at 103.362, 0.04 dollars below it. London closes at 16:00 UTC, which is the next point on the clock.

Daily, four-hour and one-hour trends agree

The daily trend is up. The twenty-day EMA is at 97.075, the fifty-day EMA is at 92.981 and the two-hundred-day EMA is at 83.123, and price is above the two-hundred-day EMA. Daily RSI is 64.6. Five-day performance is up 4.76 percent. Twenty-day performance is up 12.5 percent.

The four-hour trend is up, with the twenty-period EMA at 101.631 and the fifty-period EMA at 100.171. The one-hour trend is up, with the twenty-period EMA at 102.389 and the fifty-period EMA at 101.676. Daily, H4 and H1 are all up, so the timeframes agree and this read stays bullish.

Pivot, prior-day and range levels

The daily pivot is 101.122, R1 is 103.106, R2 is 104.166 and R3 is 106.15. S1 is 100.062, S2 is 98.078 and S3 is 97.018. Price is already above R1, so R1 is not an overhead trigger; the bullish trigger is R2 at 104.166. The daily pivot at 101.122 is the invalidation on both paths, not a trigger.

Yesterday's bar on October 29 opened at 101.285, with a high at 102.181, a low at 99.137 and yesterday's close at 102.047, a range of 3.04 dollars. The previous day high at 102.181 and the previous day low at 99.137 are both below the last print. The five-day high is 103.362 and the five-day low is 98.435. The twenty-day high is 103.362 and the twenty-day low is 86.296. The round level below price is 103 and the round level above price is 103.5. The day high at 104.081 is still under R2 at 104.166.

Bullish path and bearish path

A break above R2 at 104.166 would open the way to R3 at 106.15, a 1.98 dollar span from that trigger to that target. A move back below the daily pivot at 101.122 would invalidate the bullish path.

The bearish case is not a slip under the five-day high. It requires a break below S1 at 100.062, which would open the way to S2 at 98.078, also 1.98 dollars from trigger to target. A move back above the daily pivot at 101.122 would invalidate that path.

What is scheduled before and after the London close

Chicago PMI is set for today at 13:45 UTC, medium impact, with a previous reading of 58.8 and an estimate of 56.1, and no actual yet. Fed's Daly speech is today at 16:00 UTC, the same time London closes, and Fed's Musalem speech is today at 16:30 UTC; both are medium impact and neither has a previous figure or an estimate. The Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count is today at 17:00 UTC, low impact, previous 460, with no estimate. Those timings are on the economic calendar, and none of the four has an actual in this data.

Reuters headlines have oil higher alongside supply worries and unsettled conditions in the Middle East, while the WSJ groups an oil jump with a deepening AI selloff and a drop in crypto.

As of the week to October 20, large speculators were net long WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD), at 57.7 percent long and 42.3 percent short, a net 89325 contracts. Speculators reduced that net long from 100343 contracts the previous week, a change of 11018 contracts, which records positioning as of that date and not a direction for this overlap.

US Treasury yields at the October 29 close showed the two-year at 4.61 percent, down 6 basis points, and the ten-year at 4.98 percent, down 7 basis points versus October 28, with the three-month yield at 4.18 percent and the two-year/ten-year curve at 37 basis points. Those yield closes are context for rate levels, not proof of why crude is up on the day.

News volume is 156 percent of its ninety-day average. The opportunity read is 17, marked bullish, after a shift from minus 55, marked bearish, over twenty-four hours, and that read is coverage tone rather than confirmation of R2.

Bottom line

WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) in the overlap is at 103.397, up 1.32 percent on the day, between R1 at 103.106 and R2 at 104.166, with the daily, four-hour and one-hour trends all up. Nearest resistance is R2 at 104.166 and nearest support is the five-day high at 103.362. A break above R2 at 104.166 would open R3 at 106.15 unless price moved back below the daily pivot at 101.122, while a break below S1 at 100.062 would open S2 at 98.078 unless price moved back above that pivot.