WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) Forecast Today Is Neutral

Daily outlook Neutral bias Nov 6, 2026, 12:58 UTC

Elena MarquezCommodities & Gold Analyst · ForexR analyst

WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) forecast today is neutral at 89.413, down 0.97% on the day, with daily trend mixed and H4 and H1 down. Nearest resistance is the previous day high at 90.323; nearest support is the daily pivot at 88.881.

WTI Crude Oil at 89.413 in the Overlap

During the London and New York overlap, WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) is at 89.413, down 0.873 from the previous close and down 0.97% on the day. The day open is 90.209, the day high is 91.528 and the day low is 88.251, so the last price is under the open and inside the day range. The bid is 89.413, the ask is 89.453 and the spread is 0.04 dollars. The print also sits between the round level at 89 and the round level at 89.5 on the WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) live rate.

The day range is 3.28 dollars, which is 75% of the 14-day ATR at 4.393, also given as 4.39 dollars. The range covers most of that ATR and stops short of the full 4.393 reading. ATR and volatility is the yardstick for that comparison, not a direction.

Daily Trend Mixed, H4 and H1 Down

The daily trend state is mixed. The last price is above the 200-day EMA at 83.8 and below both the 20-day EMA at 95.727 and the 50-day EMA at 93.169. Daily RSI is 41.7. Five-day performance is down 12.38%, and 20-day performance is down 1.27%.

The four-hour trend is down. The H4 20-period EMA is 91.543 and the H4 50-period EMA is 94.77, both above 89.413. The one-hour trend is down as well: the H1 20-period EMA is 89.706 and the H1 50-period EMA is 90.39. H4 and H1 agree with each other. They do not agree with the mixed daily state, so the bias stays neutral.

Nearest Levels, Pivots and the Two Ranges

Nearest resistance is the previous day high at 90.323, 0.91 dollars from the last price. Nearest support is the daily pivot at 88.881, 0.53 dollars from the last price. The last price sits between the daily pivot at 88.881 and R1 at 91.728.

R1 is 91.728, R2 is 93.17 and R3 is 96.017. S1 is 87.439, S2 is 84.592 and S3 is 83.15. The day high at 91.528 is below R1. The day low at 88.251 is below the daily pivot and above S1.

Yesterday's high is 90.323 and yesterday's low is 86.034, a range of 4.29 dollars. Yesterday's open is 87.473 and yesterday's close is 90.286. The day high is above yesterday's high, and the day low is above yesterday's low.

The five-day high is 104.108 and the five-day low is 86.034. The 20-day high is 104.108 and the 20-day low is 86.034. The round level below the last price is 89, and the round level above it is 89.5.

Upside Path and Downside Path

The upside trigger is R1, not the nearer previous day high. A break above R1 at 91.728 would open the way to R2 at 93.17, a 1.44 dollar span from trigger to target. A move back below the daily pivot at 88.881 would invalidate that path. The day high at 91.528 is still under R1.

The downside trigger is S1, deeper than the nearest support. A break below S1 at 87.439 would open the way to S2 at 84.592, a 2.85 dollar span from trigger to target. A move back above the daily pivot at 88.881 would invalidate that path. The last price at 89.413 is already above the pivot, and the day low at 88.251 is still above S1.

What Is on the Calendar Before London Closes

London closes at 16:00 UTC, and the overlap is still open. Today at 13:30 UTC, Nonfarm Payrolls is high impact, previous 29 and estimate 65. At the same time, average hourly earnings for the month are high impact, previous 0.1 and estimate 0.3, and the year-on-year earnings figure is high impact, previous 3 and estimate 2.9. The unemployment rate is medium impact, previous 4.2 and estimate 4.2. Labor force participation, also at 13:30 UTC, is medium impact, previous 61.8, with no estimate. The U6 underemployment rate is medium impact, previous 7.6, with no estimate. Using an economic calendar only places those times beside the price.

Nothing in that 13:30 UTC group is ranked here as a trigger. The measured distances are 0.53 dollars to the daily pivot and 0.91 dollars to the previous day high.

Today at 15:00 UTC, still before the London close, Michigan consumer sentiment is high impact, previous 48 and estimate 48. Michigan consumer expectations is medium impact, previous 48.8, with no estimate. The one-year inflation expectation is medium impact, previous 4.7, with no estimate, and the five-year inflation expectation is medium impact, previous 3.5, with no estimate.

After London closes, Fed's Bowman speech is today at 17:15 UTC, medium impact, with no previous reading and no estimate. The Baker Hughes US oil rig count is today at 18:00 UTC, low impact, previous 462, with no estimate.

On the newsflow, the titles diverge inside a geopolitical oil theme: Bloomberg Markets and Finance on Iran talks and oil sliding, CNBC on higher oil prices and US-Iran tension, and the WSJ on Middle East oil supply risks that remain, according to those reports.

As of the week to October 27, large speculators were net long WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD), 56.3% long and 43.7% short, a net 74343 contracts. Speculators reduced that net long from 89325 contracts the previous week, a change of 14982 contracts, and the report is positioning, not a forecast.

At the November 5 close, the three-month yield was 4.17%, the two-year yield was 4.46%, down 12 basis points from November 4, and the ten-year yield was 4.84%, down 6 basis points from November 4. The two-year versus ten-year spread was 38 basis points, rate context only and not a proven cause of the oil print.

News sentiment shows an opportunity read of -48, marked bearish, with news volume at 167% of the 90-day average. An alert says that opportunity read moved from -89, bearish, to -1, neutral, over 24 hours; neither figure is positioning or a forecast.

Bottom Line

In the overlap, WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD) is at 89.413, down 0.97% on the day, and the bias is neutral because the daily trend is mixed while H4 and H1 are down. Nearest resistance is the previous day high at 90.323 and nearest support is the daily pivot at 88.881. A break above R1 at 91.728 would open R2 at 93.17, a break below S1 at 87.439 would open S2 at 84.592, and the daily pivot at 88.881 is the invalidation on each path, with high-impact US data still due today at 13:30 UTC and 15:00 UTC before London closes at 16:00 UTC.