What to Expect From the RBA Rate Decision as AUD/USD Holds 0.7000

Event preview Neutral bias Nov 3, 2026, 00:03 UTC

Aisha RahmanGlobal Macro Analyst · ForexR analyst

AUD/USD holds just under 0.70000 as the RBA decision lands at 03:30 UTC today, with the daily pivot at 0.70073 and the previous day low at 0.69929 the closest levels to price.

Release dates, past figures and how prices moved after each one: RBA Interest Rate Decision calendar page.

RBA Decision Context: Rate Hike Expectations and Policy Shift

Australia's central bank delivers its interest rate decision at 03:30 UTC today, with the market estimate looking for the cash rate to rise to 4.85% from 4.60%. The RBA rate decision calendar also shows the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement and Rate Statement landing at the same 03:30 UTC slot, with neither carrying a published previous or estimate figure, followed by the RBA Press Conference at 04:30 UTC today.

Newsflow into the decision has centered on whether domestic inflation still supports further tightening, a question ExchangeRates has raised directly. FX Street coverage has pointed to hike expectations lifting the Australian dollar, including commentary attributed to Societe Generale, alongside a separate technical outlook piece on the pair. Forex.com's weekly outlook frames the rate decision alongside the US midterm elections and the week's jobs report as overlapping event risk, a grouping worth keeping in mind given how much is scheduled in the hours ahead.

AUD/USD Technical Posture Heading Into the Announcement

AUD/USD trades at 0.69988 in the Asia session, up 0.05% on the day from the previous close at 0.69956. Price sits between S1 at 0.69812 and the daily pivot at 0.70073, with the daily pivot acting as nearest resistance 8.5 pips away and the previous day low at 0.69929 the nearest support, just 5.9 pips below. The day high reached 0.70000 and the day low printed at 0.69891, a range of 10.9 pips that covers only about 25% of the 14-day ATR of 44 pips, as explained in this guide to ATR and volatility.

Yesterday's session (November 2) ran from an open of 0.70228 to a high of 0.70334 and a low of 0.69929, closing at 0.69956 across a 40.5-pip range. The daily chart's trend reads lower, with price below both the 20-day EMA at 0.70106 and the 50-day EMA at 0.70293, yet still above the 200-day EMA at 0.69888, and the daily RSI at 46.6 sits near the midpoint. The four-hour trend is mixed, with its 20- and 50-period EMAs essentially overlapping near 0.7019, while the one-hour trend points down with price below both its EMAs. Over five days AUD/USD is down 0.22%, against a 20-day gain of 0.42%, with the 5-day range between 0.69929 and 0.7067 and the 20-day range between 0.68932 and 0.7067 — a mix of signals that leaves no clean directional lean across timeframes.

What the Decision Has Done Before

Across the last seven RBA Interest Rate Decisions, AUD/USD moved a typical 13.2 pips in the hour after release and 6.2 pips four hours after, with the largest one-hour move at 46.7 pips on 2026-02-03. All seven of those releases came in exactly in line with the estimate, so there are no above- or below-estimate cases on record to compare how the pair closed afterward. A move of the typical one-hour size from the current price would carry AUD/USD up to 0.7012, a stretch that takes in the daily pivot at 0.70073, or down to 0.69856, a move that passes through both the previous day low and the 5-day low at 0.69929. This is a record of past behavior only, not a forecast of what today's release will do.

Bullish vs. Bearish Scenarios for AUD/USD

On the upside, clearing R1 at 0.70217 would open the door toward R2 at 0.70478, with that view undercut by a retreat back below the daily pivot at 0.70073. A pivot point calculator can map how these levels sit relative to price intraday.

On the downside, a slide beneath S1 at 0.69812 would clear the way toward S2 at 0.69668, a path that no longer holds if price climbs back above the daily pivot at 0.70073.

Macro Spillovers: Positioning, Yields and Market Mood

CFTC data as of the week to October 27 show large speculators net short AUD/USD, with 30.6% of positions long against 69.4% short and a net position of -128,315 contracts; that net short grew from -127,292 contracts the prior week, meaning speculators added to the net short AUD/USD position. US Treasury yields at the November 2 close stood at 4.59% on the 2-year, up 3 basis points, and 4.91% on the 10-year, down 3 basis points, leaving the 2s10s curve at 32 basis points.

News volume on AUD/USD is running at 24% of its 90-day average, and the opportunity read on the pair sits at -63, a bearish reading of coverage tone rather than a positioning or price signal.

Other Releases on the Calendar Today

The US midterm elections fall today at 05:00 UTC. US Factory Orders (MoM) are due today at 15:00 UTC, with the estimate at 1.2% against a previous reading of 0.1%, alongside JOLTS Job Openings today at 15:00 UTC, estimated at 7.13 against a previous 7.079. Later today, at 22:00 UTC, Australia's AiG Industry Index (previous -24.2), S&P Global Composite PMI (estimate and previous both 47.7) and S&P Global Services PMI (estimate and previous both 47.8) are all scheduled.

Bottom Line

The RBA Interest Rate Decision lands at 03:30 UTC today against an estimate of 4.85%, up from 4.60% previously, with AUD/USD positioned between the previous day low at 0.69929 and the daily pivot at 0.70073, and R1 at 0.70217 and S1 at 0.69812 the next levels in either direction.