Why Is EUR/USD Moving Today? S2 Support Tested as US Dollar Bids Rise

Market mover Bearish bias Sep 23, 2026, 13:20 UTC

Oliver HayesMarket Risk Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD is experiencing elevated intraday volatility, dropping toward key support at 1.14017 as US Dollar strength dominates the London and New York overlap.

EUR/USD Under Pressure as the Greenback Finds a Bid

The live EUR/USD rate is trading down at 1.14008, reflecting a decline of -0.39% or -0.00448 on the day from its previous close of 1.14456. This downside momentum has generated an intraday trading range of 51.3 pips, which represents 109% of its 14-day Average True Range indicator (ATR) of 0.00472. The market has pushed past the previous day low of 1.14287, testing S2 support at 1.14017 and printing an intraday low of 1.13992.

The Catalysts Behind Today's Euro Sell-Off

Broad-based market themes suggest a stronger environment for the US currency. According to reporting from MarcToMarket, the Greenback is bid in today's sessions, while Commerzbank analysts cited by FX Street noted that geopolitical de-escalation risks may be weighing on the Euro. Conversely, a report from Brown Brothers Harriman highlighted that potential PMI strength might limit the downside for the single currency. Traders are currently navigating these competing narratives as volatility spikes beyond typical daily parameters.

US S&P Global PMIs and Central Bank Speakers in Focus

The economic calendar features several major scheduled releases today. At 13:45 UTC, the high-impact US S&P Global Services PMI is expected to show a reading of 56, slightly down from its previous figure of 56.5, while the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is expected at 53.5 compared to its previous 53.9. The US S&P Global Composite PMI (previous 56) is also due at the same time.

Several central bank policymakers are scheduled to speak later today, including the Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC, followed by the ECB's Cipollone at 16:00 UTC and the ECB's Lane at 16:30 UTC. Looking ahead to tomorrow, September 24, the calendar highlights Germany's IFO Business Climate index (expected at 89), US Initial Jobless Claims (expected at 201), and scheduled speeches from the ECB's Schnabel and the Fed's Williams.

Technical Outlook: Crucial Support and Resistance Zones

The technical structure for this Euro to US Dollar analysis remains firmly tilted to the downside across multiple timeframes. The daily trend state is currently down, with the spot price trading below its daily EMA200 of 1.16012, its EMA50 of 1.15477, and its EMA20 of 1.15428, while the daily RSI14 sits at 32.4. On the four-hour chart, the trend state is also down, with the price trading below the H4 EMA20 of 1.145 and the H4 EMA50 of 1.14916. The nearest technical boundaries are defined by the 5-day low of 1.14287 and the 5-day high of 1.15559. Over a broader horizon, the 20-day low is also at 1.14287, while the 20-day high is marked at 1.16763.

As context to today's pricing, the weekly Commitments of Traders report for the week ending September 15, 2026, indicated that large speculators held a net short EUR/USD position of -26993 contracts, as speculators reduced net short EUR/USD. Meanwhile, on September 22, 2026, the US 2-year Treasury yield closed at 4.71% (down 5 basis points) and the 10-year yield ended at 4.96%. Current news sentiment measures a bullish news share of 63% and a bearish share of 37%, with the media mood tracking at 75 out of 100, while the opportunity score registers a bearish reading of -29.

Risk Scenarios and Key Levels

• Bearish Scenario: A sustained breakdown below S3 support at 1.13748 would open the way toward the next round number target of 1.135, while a move back above the daily pivot at 1.14506 would invalidate this view.
• Bullish Scenario: Alternatively, a break above R1 resistance at 1.14726 would open the path to R2 resistance at 1.14995, though a move below the daily pivot at 1.14506 would cancel this bullish scenario.