Eurozone Inflation (HICP)
Euro area · EUR · next release, past figures and how EUR/USD moved after each one. Times in UTC.
What Is Eurozone CPI?
The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is the euro area's inflation measure, published by Eurostat. A flash estimate comes out at the end of the month or the first days of the next, and the final figure about two weeks later.
The ECB aims for 2% inflation on this measure. The flash estimate usually moves the euro more than the final reading, which rarely differs much.
Read more: CPI and Forex.
How the Market Moved After the Last Releases
| Instrument | Typical 1h move | Typical 4h move | Largest 1h move | After a figure above estimate | After a figure below estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 2.9 pips | 11.1 pips | 16.3 pips 31 Jul 2026 | Higher 1, lower 2 of 3 | Higher 1, lower 2 of 3 |
| Last 12 measurable releases. "Higher" and "lower" count how the price stood one hour after the release. Rate decisions are usually in line with the estimate, so the statement and press conference drive the move. | |||||
Release History
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Estimate | Surprise | EUR/USD 1h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 2 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC | 3.8% | 3.6% | +0.2% | −0.3 pips |
| Tue 1 Sep 2026, 09:00 UTC | 3.3% | 3.3% | 0% | −1 pips |
| Wed 19 Aug 2026, 09:00 UTC | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0% | +8 pips |
| Fri 31 Jul 2026, 09:00 UTC | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0% | −16.3 pips |
| Wed 1 Jul 2026, 09:00 UTC | 2.8% | 3% | −0.2% | −8.8 pips |
| Tue 2 Jun 2026, 09:00 UTC | 3.2% | 3.2% | 0% | −0.5 pips |
| Wed 20 May 2026, 09:00 UTC | 3% | 3% | 0% | −2.3 pips |
| Thu 30 Apr 2026, 09:00 UTC | 3% | 2.9% | +0.1% | +14.8 pips |
| Tue 31 Mar 2026, 09:00 UTC | 2.5% | 2.6% | −0.1% | +1.3 pips |
| Wed 25 Feb 2026, 10:00 UTC | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0% | −7.9 pips |
| Mon 19 Jan 2026, 10:00 UTC | 1.9% | 2% | −0.1% | −0.4 pips |
| Tue 2 Dec 2025, 10:00 UTC | 2.2% | 2.1% | +0.1% | −3.5 pips |
Eurozone CPI Previews
Aisha RahmanEurozone CPI FAQ
When is the next Eurozone CPI release?
The next Eurozone CPI release is scheduled for Wed 4 Nov 2026, 10:00 UTC. Dates come from the economic calendar and can change.
How much does EUR/USD move after Eurozone CPI?
Over the last 12 releases, the typical move in EUR/USD one hour after Eurozone CPI was 2.9 pips, and 11.1 pips after four hours (median sizes, either direction). The largest one-hour move was 16.3 pips on 31 Jul 2026. Past moves are not a forecast of the next release.
What does a figure above or below the estimate mean?
The estimate is the consensus of economists' forecasts before the release. Markets price in that number, so prices react mainly to the surprise: the gap between the actual figure and the estimate, and to revisions of earlier months, rather than to whether the figure is high or low.
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