ECB decision 2026: Next Release Date, History & Market Reaction

ECB Interest Rate Decision

Euro area · EUR · next release, past figures and how EUR/USD moved after each one. Times in UTC.

Next release Thu 17 Dec 2026, 13:15 UTC Estimate – · previous 2.65%

Latest release 2.65% vs 2.65% expected 29 Oct 2026 · in line with the estimate

Typical EUR/USD move, 1 hour 17.4 pips median of the last 8 releases

What Is ECB decision?

The European Central Bank's Governing Council sets euro area interest rates at eight monetary policy meetings a year, about every six weeks. The decision is published at 2:15 p.m. Frankfurt time and the President's press conference starts at 2:45 p.m.

The deposit facility rate is the ECB's main policy rate; the main refinancing rate is announced alongside it. As with the Fed, the rate is often expected, and the euro reacts to the statement, new staff projections and the press conference.

How the Market Moved After the Last Releases

Instrument	Typical 1h move	Typical 4h move	Largest 1h move	After a figure above estimate	After a figure below estimate
EUR/USD	17.4 pips	17.6 pips	32.8 pips 29 Oct 2026	–	–
Last 8 measurable releases. "Higher" and "lower" count how the price stood one hour after the release. Rate decisions are usually in line with the estimate, so the statement and press conference drive the move.

Release History

Date (UTC)	Actual	Estimate	Surprise	EUR/USD 1h
Thu 29 Oct 2026, 13:15 UTC	2.65%	2.65%	0%	+32.8 pips
Thu 10 Sep 2026, 12:15 UTC	2.65%	2.65%	0%	−5.7 pips
Thu 23 Jul 2026, 12:15 UTC	2.4%	2.4%	0%	−22.4 pips
Thu 11 Jun 2026, 12:15 UTC	2.4%	2.4%	0%	−8.6 pips
Thu 30 Apr 2026, 12:15 UTC	2.15%	2.15%	0%	−14 pips
Thu 19 Mar 2026, 13:15 UTC	2.15%	2.15%	0%	+29.4 pips
Thu 5 Feb 2026, 13:15 UTC	2.15%	2.15%	0%	−1.1 pips
Thu 18 Dec 2025, 13:15 UTC	2.15%	2.15%	0%	+20.7 pips

ECB decision FAQ

When is the next ECB decision release?

The next ECB decision release is scheduled for Thu 17 Dec 2026, 13:15 UTC. Dates come from the economic calendar and can change.

How much does EUR/USD move after ECB decision?

Over the last 8 releases, the typical move in EUR/USD one hour after ECB decision was 17.4 pips, and 17.6 pips after four hours (median sizes, either direction). The largest one-hour move was 32.8 pips on 29 Oct 2026. Past moves are not a forecast of the next release.

What does a figure above or below the estimate mean?

The estimate is the consensus of economists' forecasts before the release. Markets price in that number, so prices react mainly to the surprise: the gap between the actual figure and the estimate, and to revisions of earlier months, rather than to whether the figure is high or low.