EUR/USD Forecast Today: Price Nears 1.1272 Ahead of ECB Speeches

Daily outlook Neutral bias Nov 5, 2026, 06:05 UTC

Sophia BennettSenior FX Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD trades near the top of its recent range during the Asia session, facing immediate resistance at the previous day high. A heavy slate of ECB speeches and US economic data awaits traders looking for fresh direction.

Where EUR/USD Stands Now

EUR/USD sits between the daily pivot at 1.12274 and R1 at 1.12724. The nearest resistance is the previous day high at 1.12723, while the closest support rests at the daily pivot of 1.12274.

During the Asia session, the pair is trading at 1.126, up 0.00325 or 0.29% on the day. The day's trading range spans from a low of 1.12219 to a high of 1.12676. This 45.7-pip movement covers 71% of the 14-period Average True Range of 64.2 pips, showing a moderate level of volatility ahead of the London opening.

Trend and Momentum Signals

The technical structure presents conflicting signals, keeping the overall bias neutral. The daily trend is mixed, with price positioned below the 200-period exponential moving average at 1.15143. On the shorter timeframes, however, both the four-hour and one-hour charts reflect upward trends. The 14-day Relative Strength Index sits at 48.3, lacking clear directional momentum on the daily chart.

Key Levels to Watch

Beyond the immediate hurdle at the previous day high of 1.12723, buyers face R1 at 1.12724 and the round level of 1.13 above. On the downside, below the daily pivot support of 1.12274, the previous day low sits at 1.11823. The round level of 1.125 marks a psychological barrier just below the current price.

Looking at the wider structure, the 5-day window displays a high of 1.12723 and a low of 1.1104. The broader 20-day timeframe shares these exact boundaries, carrying its own high of 1.12723 and a low of 1.1104.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

In a bullish scenario, a break above R1 at 1.12724 would open the way to R2 at 1.13174. A move back below the daily pivot at 1.12274 would invalidate this upward view.

Conversely, a break below S1 at 1.11824 would open the way to S2 at 1.11374. A move back above the daily pivot at 1.12274 would invalidate the bearish path.

Market Catalysts Today

The economic calendar is heavily populated today, starting when London opens at 07:00 UTC with German month-over-month factory orders, estimated at 4.8 against a previous -10.6, alongside the unadjusted year-over-year reading. At 10:00 UTC, eurozone month-over-month producer prices are estimated at 2.5, and the year-over-year figure is estimated at 10.9 against a previous 8.2. US Challenger job cuts follow at 10:30 UTC. The New York session features a block of US data at 13:30 UTC, including initial jobless claims estimated at 196 against a previous 194, unit labor costs estimated at 0.6, and nonfarm productivity estimated at 2.5. ECB President Lagarde speaks twice today, at 12:00 UTC and 16:00 UTC, alongside scheduled appearances from the ECB's Cipollone, Schnabel, and Lane, as well as the Fed's Hammack.

In the newsflow, market coverage highlights US dollar weakness following the midterm elections and potential ECB rate hikes, as reported by FXEmpire, FX Street, and Scotiabank. The opportunity reading on the pair currently sits at 73, indicating a bullish tone in recent news sentiment.

In the futures market, speculators were net short EUR/USD as of the week to October 27, and added to that net short position. Providing broader context, US Treasury yields closed on November 4 with the 2-year yield at 4.58%, down 3 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 4.9%, down 5 basis points.

Bottom Line

EUR/USD moves through the Asia session testing the upper bounds of its recent range. Trading direction awaits a test of the 1.12724 resistance level as a dense schedule of central bank commentary and US labor releases gets underway later today.