EUR Core Harmonized Index Of Consumer Prices Preview For EUR/USD

Event preview Neutral bias Nov 4, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Aisha RahmanGlobal Macro Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD trades at 1.12057 during the Asia session, showing mixed trend signals across timeframes. Today's Eurozone Core HICP data arrives with the YoY estimate at 2.5%.

Eurozone Inflation Data and Media Sentiment

Today at 10:00 UTC, the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) report will be released. The estimate for Core HICP (YoY) is 2.5%, matching the previous release. The estimate for the broader HICP (YoY) sits at 4%, compared to the previous 3.8%. Additionally, the previous Core HICP (MoM) was 0.2%, and the previous HICP (MoM) was 0.6%.

In the news, themes of US midterm elections and ECB policy run through coverage published by FX Empire and FX Street. The media mood carries a news volume at 114% of the 90-day average, with an opportunity score of 3 and a neutral reading. The opportunity read on EUR/USD moved from 54 to -16 in 24 hours.

EUR/USD Technical Setup

During the Asia session, EUR/USD trades at 1.12057, up 0.13% on the day. Price is positioned between the daily pivot at 1.11903 and R1 at 1.12062. The trend is down on the daily timeframe, but up on the H4 and H1 timeframes. Because the daily and intraday timeframes show conflicting directions, the technical bias remains neutral.

The 5-day high sits at 1.12363 and the 5-day low is 1.1104. The 20-day high reached 1.12688 and the 20-day low was 1.1104. The pair's performance over the last 5 days shows a change of 0.74%, and over the last 20 days, it is at -0.47%. The day range covers 25.8 pips, which is 41% of the 14-day ATR of 62.2 pips. The nearest resistance is the previous day high at 1.12059, and the nearest support is the daily pivot at 1.11903.

Core HICP Event History

In the last 12 releases of this event, the typical move one hour after the release was 2.9 pips, and the typical move four hours after was 11.1 pips. The largest move an hour after was 16.3 pips on 2026-07-31. Of the 2 releases that came in above the estimate, EUR/USD closed lower an hour later in 2 cases. After 5 releases that came in below the estimate, the pair closed lower an hour later in 3 cases and higher in 2. This is past behavior, not a forecast of today's release.

A move of the typical one-hour size from the current price would reach up to 1.12086, passing through the previous day high at 1.12059 and R1 at 1.12062. A typical move downward to 1.12028 would not cross any calculated levels.

Technical Scenarios and Market Context

A break above R1 at 1.12062 would open the way to R2 at 1.12219. A move back below the daily pivot at 1.11903 would invalidate this upside path. On the downside, a break below S1 at 1.11746 would open the way to S2 at 1.11587. A move back above the daily pivot at 1.11903 would invalidate this bearish view.

As context, weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders data as of the week to 2026-10-27 shows large speculators held a net short EUR/USD position, and speculators added to net short EUR/USD. US Treasury yields at the daily close on 2026-11-03 stood at 4.21% for the 3-month, 4.61% for the 2-year, and 4.95% for the 10-year.

Additional Calendar Events

Today's economic calendar also features HCOB Services PMI from Spain at 08:15 UTC (previous 58.3). Germany releases its HCOB Composite PMI (estimate 52.8) and Services PMI (estimate 51.7) at 08:55 UTC, followed by the EMU HCOB Composite PMI at 09:00 UTC (estimate 51.9). Later in the day, US ADP Employment Change is scheduled for 13:15 UTC (estimate 69). The ECB's Lane speaks at 13:20 UTC. Further US data includes the S&P Global Composite PMI at 14:45 UTC (estimate 57.6), ISM Services PMI at 15:00 UTC (estimate 54.8), ISM Services New Orders Index (previous 59.8), and ISM Services Prices Paid (previous 74).

Bottom Line

The EMU Core HICP release is scheduled for 10:00 UTC with an estimate of 2.5%. London opens at 07:00 UTC, and EUR/USD approaches the data sitting below the previous day high at 1.12059 and above the daily pivot at 1.11903.