EUR/USD Resistance Focus: EUR Retail Sales MoM Preview

Event preview Neutral bias Nov 5, 2026, 02:18 UTC

Aisha RahmanGlobal Macro Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD trades at 1.12529 ahead of today's Italian EUR Retail Sales MoM release, bracketed by the daily pivot and the previous day high. The shorter timeframes point upward as price approaches the 1.12723 resistance level.

EUR/USD Position and Retail Sales MoM Preview

Today at 09:00 UTC, the Italian EUR Retail Sales MoM (Sep) report is released, featuring an estimate of 0.2% against a previous print of 0.3%. In the Asia session, with London opening at 07:00 UTC, EUR/USD trades at 1.12529, positioned between the daily pivot at 1.12274 and R1 at 1.12724. The pair is up 0.23% on the day, covering a 35.8-pip range that accounts for 56% of the 14-day ATR (64.2 pips). Trend signals are mixed across timeframes: the 1-hour and 4-hour charts lean up, while the daily timeframe is mixed with price below the 200-day EMA of 1.15143. The nearest resistance is the previous day high at 1.12723, and the nearest support stands at the daily pivot at 1.12274.

Past Market Reaction to the Release

Looking at the last 5 releases of this event, the typical move an hour after was 6.3 pips, with a typical four-hour move of 3.2 pips. The largest one-hour move over this sample was 24.3 pips on 2026-03-05. After 2 of the 3 releases that came in above the estimate, EUR/USD closed higher an hour later. The pair also closed higher an hour later after 1 of the 2 results below the estimate. From the current price, a move of the typical one-hour size reaches up to 1.12592 and down to 1.12466, without crossing any nearby levels. This outlines past behaviour and is not a forecast of today's release.

Technical Scenarios and Key Levels

A break above R1 at 1.12724 would open the way to R2 at 1.13174; a move back below the daily pivot at 1.12274 would invalidate this upside path. On the downside, a break below S1 at 1.11824 would open the way to S2 at 1.11374, while a move back above the daily pivot at 1.12274 would invalidate the bearish view.

Market Context and News Sentiment

Recent newsflow centers on a weakening US Dollar, as reported by FX Street and FXEmpire, alongside European Central Bank rate expectations noted by FX Street. Media mood data presents a bullish opportunity reading of 74, with news volume running at 195% of its 90-day average.

As of the week to October 27, large speculators were net short EUR/USD, and speculators added to net short EUR/USD. In the US Treasury market, yields at the daily close on November 4 provide further context, with the 2-year yield at 4.58%, down 3 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 4.9%, down 5 basis points.

Other Economic Calendar Events Today

Today's economic calendar includes multiple releases beyond the retail sales data:

• At 07:00 UTC, German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) are scheduled with an estimate of 4.8% and a previous print of -10.6%, alongside the n.s.a. (YoY) reading with a previous 2.7%.
• At 10:00 UTC, the EMU Producer Price Index (MoM) follows with an estimate of 2.5% against a previous 1.9%, alongside the YoY measure estimated at 10.9% against a previous 8.2%.
• US data begins at 10:30 UTC with Challenger Job Cuts (previous 43.281). At 13:30 UTC, the US reports Unit Labor Costs (estimate 0.6%, previous 1.2%), Initial Jobless Claims (estimate 196, previous 194), and Nonfarm Productivity (estimate 2.5%, previous 1.4%).
• Central bank speeches today include the ECB's Cipollone at 07:30 UTC, Schnabel at 08:05 UTC, Lane at 15:40 UTC, and President Lagarde at 12:00 UTC and 16:00 UTC. The Fed's Hammack is scheduled to speak at 13:50 UTC.

Today's Italian Retail Sales MoM print is due at 09:00 UTC with an estimate of 0.2%. EUR/USD heads toward the release trading at 1.12529, bracketed by the nearest resistance at the previous day high of 1.12723 and support at the daily pivot of 1.12274.