EUR/USD Forecast Today: Stalls Near 5-Day High at 1.1236

Daily outlook Neutral bias Nov 4, 2026, 06:05 UTC

Sophia BennettSenior FX Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD sits between R2 and R3 in the Asian session, up 0.39% on the day, with the daily trend mixed against aligned H4/H1 uptrends ahead of Eurozone inflation and US ADP/ISM Services releases.

EUR/USD in the Asian Session

EUR/USD trades at 1.12348 during the Asian session, up 0.39% on the day after adding 0.00442 from the previous close at 1.11906. The day's range runs from the day low at 1.11823 to the day high at 1.12621, a spread of 79.8 pips that already equals 128% of the 14-day ATR of 62.2 pips, so the day's move has outrun its typical volatility band well ahead of the London open at 07:00 UTC.

Trend Check: Daily Mixed, H4 and H1 Point Higher

The daily trend reads mixed, with price sitting below the 200-day EMA at 1.15173 while the 20-day EMA at 1.1213 and 50-day EMA at 1.13149 offer no clear direction of their own. Daily RSI(14) sits at 42.8, below the 50 midpoint, which doesn't back up a strong bullish case on that timeframe. The H4 trend is up, with price above its 20-period EMA at 1.11946 and 50-period EMA at 1.11874, and the H1 trend agrees, holding above its 20-period EMA at 1.12142 and 50-period EMA at 1.11997. With the daily picture mixed against aligned H4 and H1 uptrends, the timeframes don't fully agree, which keeps today's bias neutral. Over the past five days EUR/USD is up 1%, yet it remains down 0.21% over the past twenty days, underscoring the split between the near-term bounce and the longer stretch.

Levels That Matter

Price sits between R2 at 1.12219 and R3 at 1.12378. The nearest resistance is the 5-day high at 1.12363, just 1.5 pips above current trade, while the nearest support is R2 at 1.12219, 12.9 pips below. Further out, the daily pivot sits at 1.11903, with R1 at 1.12062 and S1 at 1.11746, S2 at 1.11587 and S3 at 1.1143 below it; the pivot point calculator breaks down how these are derived. Yesterday's session (the previous day) closed at 1.11906 after a 31.6-pip range between the previous day high at 1.12059 and the previous day low at 1.11743. The 5-day range spans a low of 1.1104 to a high of 1.12363, and the 20-day range spans a low of 1.1104 to a high of 1.12688. The round number at 1.12 sits just below price, while 1.125 sits overhead.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

On the upside, clearing R3 at 1.12378 would open the way toward the round number at 1.125; slipping back below the daily pivot at 1.11903 would call that path off. On the downside, a break through S1 at 1.11746 would expose S2 at 1.11587, while a reclaim of the daily pivot at 1.11903 would undercut that case.

What Could Move EUR/USD Today

The Eurozone docket is heavy. Spain's HCOB Services PMI lands at 08:15 UTC (previous 58.3), followed by Germany's HCOB Composite and Services PMIs at 08:55 UTC (previous and estimate 52.8 and 51.7) and the Eurozone Composite PMI at 09:00 UTC (previous and estimate 51.9). The high-impact Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices follows at 10:00 UTC, with the year-on-year estimate at 4% against a previous 3.8%, the core year-on-year estimate steady at 2.5%, and the monthly core reading carrying a previous of 0.2%. ECB Chief Economist Lane is scheduled to speak at 13:20 UTC. On the US side, ADP Employment Change prints at 13:15 UTC with an estimate of 69 against a previous 90, the S&P Global Composite PMI follows at 14:45 UTC (previous and estimate both 57.6), and ISM Services PMI lands at 15:00 UTC with an estimate of 54.8 versus a previous 54.9, alongside the New Orders and Prices Paid subindexes at the same hour; the economic calendar guide covers how to read releases like these. Newsflow is split by theme: FX Street coverage points to dollar softness and a hawkish European Central Bank cushioning the euro, FXEmpire frames broader dollar firmness heading into the US midterm elections, and Action Forex describes a near-term constructive setup sitting inside a longer bearish picture.

As of the week to October 27, 2026, CFTC data show large speculators net short EUR/USD, and speculators added to that net short position from the prior week. US Treasury yields at the November 3, 2026 close show the 2-year at 4.61%, up 2 basis points, and the 10-year at 4.95%, up 4 basis points versus the prior day, with the curve between the two at 34 basis points. News volume around EUR/USD is running at 141% of its 90-day average, and the opportunity read, a separate media-mood score, has moved from -15 (bearish) to 8 over the past 24 hours, now neutral.

Bottom Line

EUR/USD is holding just under the 5-day high at 1.12363 and R3 at 1.12378, with short-term H4 and H1 trends up but the daily trend mixed and RSI below 50, leaving the setup neutral into a packed Eurozone inflation and US services data session. A clear break of R3 or S1 would define the next directional move, while the daily pivot at 1.11903 marks the line that would undo either scenario; the risk and reward calculator can help frame either path against those levels.