EUR/USD Forecast Today: Steady Near Pivot, Eyes 1.1200

Daily outlook Neutral bias Nov 3, 2026, 06:06 UTC

Sophia BennettSenior FX Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD trades in a tight range just above the daily pivot at 1.11883, with mixed signals across timeframes keeping the bias neutral ahead of US JOLTS data and tomorrow's Eurozone inflation report.

EUR/USD Price Action: Holding Just Below 1.1200

In Asian trade, with EUR/USD last quoted at 1.11927, the pair is up 0.06% on the day from the previous close at 1.11858. The day's range has been tight, with the day high at 1.11969 and the day low at 1.11762, a spread of 20.7 pips that amounts to just 32% of the 14-day ATR of 64.5 pips. London opens at 07:00 UTC, and that narrow range leaves plenty of the day's typical volatility still unused heading into the European and US sessions.

Trend and Momentum: Timeframes Pulling in Different Directions

The daily trend reads down, with price sitting below both the 20-day EMA at 1.12154 and the 200-day EMA at 1.15207, while the 14-day RSI sits at 42. On the H4 chart the trend is mixed, with the 20-period EMA at 1.11801 barely separated from the 50-period EMA at 1.11812. The H1 trend, by contrast, has turned up, with its 20-period EMA at 1.1191 above the 50-period EMA at 1.11847.

With the daily pointing down, H4 essentially flat, and H1 up, the three timeframes are not telling the same story, which keeps today's bias neutral rather than tilted either way.

Key Levels: Pivots, Yesterday's Range and the Wider Boundaries

Price is sitting between the daily pivot at 1.11883 and R1 at 1.12338. The daily pivot is the nearest support, only 4.4 pips below the last price, while R1 is the nearest resistance, 41.1 pips above it. The pivot point framework also marks R2 at 1.12818 and R3 at 1.13273 above, with S1 at 1.11403, S2 at 1.10948 and S3 at 1.10468 below.

Yesterday's session, November 2, closed at 1.11858 inside a 93.5-pip range bounded by a high at 1.12363 and a low at 1.11428. Zooming out, the 5-day range runs from a high of 1.12363 down to a low of 1.1104, while the 20-day range stretches from a high of 1.1276 down to the same low of 1.1104. The round number at 1.1200 sits just overhead, with 1.1150 the nearest round figure below current trade.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

Bullish case

A break above R1 at 1.12338 would open the way toward R2 at 1.12818, a move of roughly 48 pips. That view would be invalidated by a slide back below the daily pivot at 1.11883.

Bearish case

Conversely, a drop through S1 at 1.11403 would expose S2 at 1.10948, a decline of about 45.5 pips. A recovery back above the daily pivot at 1.11883 would undercut that bearish case. Readers mapping either path can size the distances with the risk and reward calculator.

What Could Move EUR/USD Today

US Factory Orders (MoM) and JOLTS Job Openings both land at 15:00 UTC today; Factory Orders carries an estimate of 1.2% against a previous 0.1%, while JOLTS is estimated at 7.13 against a previous 7.079. Later today, ECB's Nagel speaks at 18:00 UTC and ECB's Sleijpen at 18:15 UTC. Tomorrow brings a heavier Eurozone slate, including Spanish and German services and composite PMIs, plus Eurozone HICP inflation at 10:00 UTC, where the year-on-year estimate is 3.9% versus a previous 3.8% and the core year-on-year estimate holds at 2.5%, matching its previous reading. Traders scheduling around these can use the economic calendar guide.

The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report, for the week to October 27, 2026, shows large speculators net short EUR/USD in Euro FX futures, with 38.1% of positions long against 61.9% short. Over that week, speculators added to the net short EUR/USD position, taking it to 143,894 contracts net short from 134,524 the week before.

US Treasury yields at the November 2 close showed the 2-year yield at 4.59%, up 3 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 4.91%, down 3 basis points, leaving the 2s10s curve at 32 basis points.

News sentiment data shows coverage volume running at 114% of its 90-day average, while the opportunity read has shifted to -15, a bearish reading, reversing from a bullish 54 within the prior 24 hours. Newsflow itself has been mixed: FXEmpire pointed to dollar softness tied to a sharp drop in oil prices, FX Street's own coverage swung between flagging potential upside and noting the pair's struggle to hold gains above the 1.1200 area, and ExchangeRates flagged a longer-term bullish outlook for the euro.

Bottom Line

EUR/USD is consolidating a few pips above the daily pivot at 1.11883 and well inside its 14-day ATR, with daily, H4 and H1 trends not pointing the same way. A clean break of R1 at 1.12338 or S1 at 1.11403 would offer the clearer directional signal, while US JOLTS and Factory Orders data today and tomorrow's Eurozone inflation figures stand as the next scheduled catalysts.