EUR Gross Domestic Product Forecast: EUR/USD Tests Resistance

Event preview Neutral bias Oct 30, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Aisha RahmanGlobal Macro Analyst · ForexR analyst

Trend signals for EUR/USD conflict across timeframes in the Asia session. Price action sits just under the previous day high ahead of key German and Eurozone growth figures.

European GDP Estimates on the Schedule

Today at 09:00 UTC, the German Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) estimate stands at 0.1, compared to a previous reading of 0. The accompanying YoY estimate is 1.1, following a previous 2.3. At 10:00 UTC, the Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) estimate is 0.2 against a previous 0.6, alongside a YoY estimate of 1.1 from a previous 1.2.

EUR/USD Price Action and Trend Conflicts

During the Asia session, EUR/USD trades at 1.11831, positioned between the daily pivot at 1.11557 and R1 at 1.12073, just under the previous day high. The price is up 0.04% on the day, traversing a day range of 23.1 pips between a low of 1.11682 and a high of 1.11913. This range accounts for 38% of the 14-day ATR of 61.1 pips. The nearest resistance is the previous day high at 1.11845, sitting 1.4 pips away, while the nearest support is the daily pivot at 1.11557, located 27.4 pips below price.

Trend signals conflict across timeframes, producing a neutral bias. The hourly chart reflects an upward trend, the four-hour chart is mixed, and the daily timeframe shows a downward trend with price remaining below the 200-day exponential moving average at 1.15273. Over the 5-day window, EUR/USD recorded a high of 1.12259 and a low of 1.1104. The 20-day window shares the same low of 1.1104 but posted a higher peak at 1.12848.

Historical Performance and Typical Moves

Looking at the last 6 releases of the German GDP event, past behaviour is not a forecast of this release. The typical move an hour after the release was 2.5 pips, and four hours after it was 22.85 pips. The largest move an hour after was 10.7 pips on 2026-07-30. In 2 of the 3 releases that came in above the estimate, EUR/USD closed higher an hour later. A move of the typical 2.5-pip size from the current price would reach up to 1.11856, crossing the previous day high at 1.11845, or down to 1.11806 without crossing any major levels.

Technical Scenarios for EUR/USD

A break above R1 at 1.12073 would open the way to R2 at 1.12362; a move back below the daily pivot at 1.11557 would invalidate this upside path. On the downside, a break below S1 at 1.11268 would open the way to S2 at 1.10752; a move back above the daily pivot at 1.11557 would invalidate the bearish view.

Context and Broader Market Sentiment

Media coverage highlights ongoing challenges for the euro, with Action Forex observing downward pressure, FX Street pointing to persistent risks, and Forexcom noting limited confidence. At the same time, FXEmpire mentions a dollar pullback, while another FX Street headline suggests the current range could hold. The independent opportunity read on EUR/USD shifted from -15 (bearish) to 7 (neutral) over the last 24 hours amid news volume at 183% of the 90-day average. In the futures market, as of the week to October 20, speculators reduced net short EUR/USD positioning. As background context on October 29, the US 2-year Treasury yield closed at 4.61%, down 6 basis points, and the 10-year yield closed at 4.98%, down 7 basis points.

Other Regional Calendar Events

Several other European releases populate the calendar today. At 05:30 UTC, French Gross Domestic Product data is scheduled, followed by the French Consumer Price Index at 07:45 UTC. Spanish CPI and GDP data follow at 08:00 UTC. At 08:55 UTC, the German unemployment rate and unemployment change are due, preceding Italian GDP figures at 09:00 UTC and Italian CPI data at 10:00 UTC.

Bottom Line

Markets await the 09:00 UTC German Gross Domestic Product data, estimated at 0.1, alongside the Eurozone GDP at 10:00 UTC estimated at 0.2. Before London opens, EUR/USD tests immediate resistance at 1.11845 and sits above support at 1.11557.