EUR/USD News Today: Oversized Drop Puts S3 at 1.12488 in Play

Market mover Bearish bias Oct 1, 2026, 10:45 UTC

Oliver HayesMarket Risk Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD trades at 1.12779, down 0.45% in London, with daily, H4 and H1 trends lower. S3 at 1.12488 is the level that would open the way to 1.12.

EUR/USD last printed 1.12779 in the London session, down 0.45% on the day from the previous close at 1.13285. Daily, four-hour and hourly trends all sit in a down state, and the single level that matters most is S3 at 1.12488: a break through that support would open the way toward 1.12.

A range already larger than average

The pair is lower by 0.00506, with the day open at 1.13239, the day high at 1.13361 and the day low at 1.12648. That 71.3-pip range is 144% of the 14-day ATR of 49.4 pips — a 1.2-times ATR decline while London is still in progress.

An oversized range plus a packed docket is a volatility problem, not a signal. The position size calculator is the practical check on leverage against that 49.4-pip ATR. The ATR guide shows how today's 71.3-pip range compares with that average.

Newsflow and today's calendar

As reported by FX Street and Action Forex, coverage has clustered around new lows and how far the decline might run, while according to FXEmpire Treasury yields have been lifting the dollar as EUR/USD retreated. That is the conversation in the newsflow; it does not prove why the print moved.

News sentiment is 53% bullish versus 47% bearish, and media mood is 100. The opportunity read is -39, a bearish score.

US Treasury yields as of September 30 show the 2-year at 4.88%, down 1 basis point, and the 10-year at 5.29%, up 3 basis points. As of the week to September 22, large speculators were net short EUR/USD and added to that net short.

Today's docket still includes Nagel and Villeroy at 10:35 UTC, Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (previous 197, estimate 200), Lagarde at 13:30 UTC, and ISM Manufacturing PMI at 14:00 UTC (previous 54.6, estimate 55). Also listed at 14:00 UTC: ISM Prices Paid, New Orders, Employment, Sleijpen and Waller. Schnabel, Jefferson, Bowman and Williams speak later today.

Levels and scenarios

Nearest resistance is S2 at 1.12852, 7.3 pips above the last print. Nearest support is S3 at 1.12488, 29.1 pips below. The daily pivot is at 1.13432, R1 at 1.13648, R2 at 1.14012 and S1 at 1.13068. Round numbers sit at 1.13 above and 1.125 below. Live pivots are on the EUR/USD rate, chart and pivots page.

The 5-day window has a high at 1.14103 and a low at 1.1311. Over 20 days the high is 1.16533 and the low is 1.1311. Yesterday's high was 1.13795, yesterday's low 1.13215, and yesterday's close 1.13285.

Price is below the daily 20-EMA at 1.14609, the 50-EMA at 1.15084 and the 200-EMA at 1.15908. The four-hour 20-EMA is at 1.134 and the 50-EMA at 1.13841. Daily RSI is 23.7. The pair is down 0.9% over five days and down 2.67% over 20 days.

If price breaks S3 at 1.12488, the next round number at 1.12 comes into view, 48.8 pips from that trigger; that case would no longer hold on a move back above the daily pivot at 1.13432. A break above R1 at 1.13648 would open the way to R2 at 1.14012, a 36.4-pip stretch from the trigger, and a slip back below the daily pivot at 1.13432 would invalidate that view.

Bottom line

London has EUR/USD at 1.12779 with every tracked timeframe pointing lower and a range already beyond the 14-day ATR. S3 at 1.12488 is the support that would extend the decline toward 1.12; S2 at 1.12852 remains the nearest cap. Lagarde and ISM Manufacturing still sit on today's docket, so this session can still add range.