What is the EUR/USD forecast today?

EUR/USD is at 1.1291, down 0.33% in the London session, with daily, H4 and H1 trends all down. Nearest support is S2 at 1.12852 and nearest resistance is S1 at 1.13068.

What data could move EUR/USD later today?

Today brings US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (previous 197, estimate 200), ECB President Lagarde at 13:30 UTC, and ISM Manufacturing PMI at 14:00 UTC (previous 54.6, estimate 55), plus further ECB and Fed speeches. Tomorrow, ECB's Cipollone speaks at 07:30 UTC.

Do the EUR/USD timeframes agree?

Yes. Daily, H4 and H1 trends all read down, and last price is below the daily EMA20 at 1.14609, the EMA50 at 1.15084 and the EMA200 at 1.15908. Daily RSI14 is at 23.7.

What would invalidate the bearish EUR/USD scenario today?

The bearish scenario uses S2 at 1.12852 as the trigger and S3 at 1.12488 as the target. Reclaiming the daily pivot at 1.13432 would invalidate that view.

EUR/USD Forecast Today: Downtrend Intact Below S1

Daily outlook Bearish bias Oct 1, 2026, 11:20 UTC

Sophia BennettSenior FX Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD is at 1.1291, down 0.33% in the London session, with daily, H4 and H1 trends all down. S2 at 1.12852 is the nearest support; ISM Manufacturing and Lagarde still lie ahead today.

Price1.12910

Day change-0.33%

Day range1.12648 - 1.13361

ATR (14)0.00494

Resistance	Level	Support	Level
R3	1.14228	S1	1.13068
R2	1.14012	S2	1.12852
R1	1.13648	S3	1.12488
Previous day high	1.13795	Previous day low	1.13215
20-day high	1.16533	20-day low	1.13110
Daily pivot 1.13432. Data as of 2026-10-01 10:46 UTC; price from a live feed, levels computed from the previous completed daily bar.

EUR/USD 1-hour chart with the daily pivot at 1.13432, R1 1.13648, R2 1.14012, S1 1.13068, S2 1.12852 and the bullish and bearish scenario paths — EUR/USD, 1-hour candles with the daily pivot levels, the range between nearest support and resistance, and both scenario paths. Data as of 2026-10-01 10:46 UTC.

Where EUR/USD stands now

EUR/USD is at 1.1291 in the London session, down 0.33% from the previous close at 1.13285. The pair opened the day at 1.13239. The day high is at 1.13361 and the day low is at 1.12648, so the live EUR/USD rate is holding under the round 1.13 handle and above 1.125.

The day's range is already 71.3 pips against a 14-day ATR of 49.4 pips, or 144% of ATR. Yesterday's range was 58 pips.

Trend and momentum

Daily, H4 and H1 trends all read down; the timeframes agree. Last price is below the daily EMA20 at 1.14609, below the daily EMA50 at 1.15084, and below the daily EMA200 at 1.15908.

H4 EMA20 is at 1.13413 and H4 EMA50 is at 1.13847. H1 EMA20 is at 1.13164 and H1 EMA50 is at 1.13332. Daily RSI14 is at 23.7. Over five days the pair is down 0.79%. Over twenty days it is down 2.56%.

Levels that matter

The nearest resistance is S1 at 1.13068, 15.8 pips from last. The nearest support is S2 at 1.12852, 5.8 pips from last.

The daily pivot stands at 1.13432. Above it, R1 is at 1.13648, R2 at 1.14012 and R3 at 1.14228. Below S2, S3 is at 1.12488.

Yesterday's high is at 1.13795 and yesterday's low is at 1.13215. Last is below that previous-day low.

The 5-day high is at 1.14103 and the 5-day low is at 1.1311, and last is below that 5-day low. The 20-day high is at 1.16533 and the 20-day low is at 1.1311, and last is below that 20-day low. Round resistance is at 1.13; round support is at 1.125.

Bullish scenario and bearish scenario

If price clears R1 at 1.13648, the next objective on that path is R2 at 1.14012, 36.4 pips from trigger to target. That view would be invalidated by a move back below the daily pivot at 1.13432.

A break of S2 at 1.12852 would open S3 at 1.12488 as the target, a 36.4 pip stretch. Reclaiming the daily pivot at 1.13432 would take that scenario off the table.

What could move it today

US Initial Jobless Claims are due today at 12:30 UTC, previous 197, estimate 200. ECB President Lagarde speaks today at 13:30 UTC. ISM Manufacturing PMI is due today at 14:00 UTC, previous 54.6, estimate 55.

The same 14:00 UTC window today also lists ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid, previous 71.1, estimate 72.3; the ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index, previous 53.7; and the ISM Manufacturing Employment Index, previous 51.2. Speeches from ECB's Sleijpen and Fed's Waller are listed at 14:00 UTC today as well.

Later today, ECB's Schnabel speaks at 15:30 UTC, Fed's Jefferson at 17:30 UTC, Fed's Bowman at 19:00 UTC, and Fed's Williams and Fed's Cook at 19:30 UTC. Tomorrow, ECB's Cipollone speaks at 07:30 UTC. The run of releases is easier to track on an economic calendar.

Newsflow from FX Street, Action Forex and FXEmpire has centred on the euro at new lows and on how far the decline might extend, with the dollar also in focus.

As of the week to September 22, large speculators were net short EUR/USD and speculators added to net short EUR/USD.

US Treasury yields at the September 30 close showed the 2-year yield at 4.88%, down 1 basis point versus September 29, and the 10-year yield at 5.29%, up 3 basis points. The 3-month yield was at 4.2%, with the 2s10s curve at 41 basis points.

News sentiment shows a 53% bullish share and a 47% bearish share, with media mood at 100. The opportunity read is bearish at -39, and news volume stands at 108% of the 90-day average.

Bottom line

EUR/USD is at 1.1291, down 0.33%, with daily, H4 and H1 trends aligned lower and last under S1 at 1.13068. S2 at 1.12852 is the nearest support; a break would open S3 at 1.12488. A recovery through R1 at 1.13648 would be needed to open R2 at 1.14012, with the daily pivot at 1.13432 as invalidation for both mapped paths.