What is the EUR/USD forecast today with major data releases?

EUR/USD is currently at 1.13466 with a narrow day range of 18.7 pips. High-impact data including German CPI and US ADP will provide fresh direction. The daily pivot at 1.13413 is a key level.

How will German CPI and ECB signals impact EUR/USD?

German CPI at 12:00 UTC with previous 0.2% and estimate 0.5% plus ECB meeting signals could drive moves. US data at 12:15 UTC adds to the focus on direction.

What support levels are traders watching for EUR/USD?

Traders are watching the daily pivot at 1.13413 as support, with S1 at 1.13092 as a lower level. A break below would target S2 at 1.12788.

Is EUR/USD likely to break its daily range today?

EUR/USD is in a narrow range of 18.7 pips compared to ATR 48.8 pips. Breaks above R1 at 1.13717 or below S1 at 1.13092 would indicate a range break ahead of data.

EUR/USD Forecast Today: Holds Above Support in Narrow Range

Daily outlook Neutral bias Sep 30, 2026, 06:32 UTC

Sophia BennettSenior FX Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD trades at 1.13466 in the Asia session holding above the daily pivot at 1.13413 in a narrow range of 18.7 pips as high-impact German CPI, ECB meeting and US data loom on the calendar.

Blue flags with yellow stars beside a glass building

Price1.13466

Day change+0.06%

Day range1.13283 - 1.13470

ATR (14)0.00488

Resistance	Level	Support	Level
R3	1.14342	S1	1.13092
R2	1.14038	S2	1.12788
R1	1.13717	S3	1.12467
Previous day high	1.13735	Previous day low	1.13110
20-day high	1.16533	20-day low	1.13110
Daily pivot 1.13413. Data as of 2026-09-30 06:03 UTC; price from a live feed, levels computed from the previous completed daily bar.

EUR/USD 1-hour chart with the daily pivot at 1.13413, R1 1.13717, R2 1.14038, S1 1.13092, S2 1.12788 and the bullish and bearish scenario paths — EUR/USD, 1-hour candles with the daily pivot levels, the range between nearest support and resistance, and both scenario paths. Data as of 2026-09-30 06:03 UTC.

Where EUR/USD Stands Now

EUR/USD last at 1.13466, up 0.06% from the previous close at 1.13395, with a day range of 1.13283 to 1.1347. The spread stands at 1.6 pips. Today's range of 18.7 pips is 38% of the 14-day ATR at 48.8 pips. EUR/USD holds above key support levels in a narrow range as traders await high-impact German CPI, ECB meeting and US data for fresh direction. The live EUR/USD rate and chart are available here.

Trend and Momentum

Daily trend is down with price below the EMA20 at 1.14748, the EMA50 at 1.15157 and the EMA200 at 1.15926. The H4 trend is down with price below the EMA20 at 1.13626 and the EMA50 at 1.14048. The H1 trend is mixed with price above the EMA20 at 1.13405 and below the EMA50 at 1.13522. Daily RSI stands at 24.5. Timeframes do not fully agree on direction with daily and H4 showing down while H1 is mixed.

Levels that Matter

Nearest levels are the resistance at R1 1.13717, 25.1 pips away, and the support at the daily pivot 1.13413, 5.3 pips away.

Pivots include R1 at 1.13717, R2 at 1.14038, R3 at 1.14342, S1 at 1.13092, S2 at 1.12788 and S3 at 1.12467. The previous day high stands at 1.13735 and the previous day low at 1.1311. The 5-day range high is 1.14505 and the 5-day range low is 1.1311. The 20-day range high is 1.16533 and the 20-day range low is 1.1311. Round levels are below 1.13 and above 1.135.

Bullish Scenario

A break above R1 at 1.13717 would open the way to R2 at 1.14038. A move back below the daily pivot at 1.13413 would invalidate that view. The trigger to target distance is 32.1 pips.

Bearish Scenario

A break below S1 at 1.13092 would open the way to S2 at 1.12788. A move back above the daily pivot at 1.13413 would invalidate that view. The trigger to target distance is 30.4 pips.

What Could Move It Today

Today's calendar features several releases including French CPI at 06:45 UTC with previous 2.6 estimate 3, Non-Monetary Policy ECB Meeting at 07:00, German Unemployment Change at 07:55 with previous 4 estimate 5 and Unemployment Rate at 07:55 with previous 6.4 estimate 6.4, then German CPI at 12:00 with previous 0.2 estimate 0.5, German CPI YoY at 12:00 with previous 2.9 estimate 3.1, US ADP Employment Change at 12:15 with previous 38 estimate 70, US GDP Annualized at 12:30 with previous 1.5 estimate 1.5, Personal Spending at 12:30 with previous 0.2 estimate 0.8, Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index at 12:30 with previous 0.2 estimate 0.4 and Italian CPI at 09:00 with previous 3.2 estimate 3.8.

News sentiment leans bearish with bullish share at 46 percent and bearish share at 54 percent, media mood at 100 and opportunity reading bearish. As reported by FX Street, EUR/USD holds above crucial support. According to Action Forex, technical analysis points to an Elliott Wave impulsive decline unfolding.

As of the week to September 22, speculators are net short EUR/USD and have added to their net short position. The 2-year yield stands at 4.89 percent and the 10-year yield stands at 5.26 percent as of September 29. All analysis for EUR/USD is available here.

Bottom Line

EUR/USD trades in a narrow range above the daily pivot at 1.13413 while awaiting the high-impact data releases on the calendar. A break above R1 at 1.13717 would open the way to R2 at 1.14038 but a move back below the daily pivot at 1.13413 would invalidate that view. A break below S1 at 1.13092 would open the way to S2 at 1.12788 with a move back above the daily pivot at 1.13413 invalidating that view. Traders can carry this setup into the session by watching for breaks of these levels ahead of the data.