EUR Consumer Price Index Preview: Neutral Setup at 1.136

Event preview Neutral bias Sep 30, 2026, 10:10 UTC

Aisha RahmanGlobal Macro Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD trades near 1.13611 in the London session as markets await today's EUR Consumer Price Index release. Conflicting short-term and daily trends present a neutral setup ahead of the data.

EUR Consumer Price Index Data in Focus

EUR/USD trades at 1.13611 during the London session, up 0.19% on the day, as market attention turns to incoming inflation data. Today at 12:00 UTC, the EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM) out of Germany goes live. The estimate points to a 0.5% print, stepping higher than the previous 0.2% result. At the same time, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) is scheduled, expecting a 3.1% reading against a prior 2.9%. Later in the session, the US economic calendar brings ADP Employment Change and annualized Gross Domestic Product figures at 12:15 UTC and 12:30 UTC. As broader context, US Treasury yields at the September 29 close saw the 2-year yield at 4.89%, down 3 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 5.26%, up 2 basis points.

EUR/USD Technical Setup

The technical landscape offers conflicting signals, setting a neutral bias for the pair. The daily trend reads as down, with price remaining below the daily EMA200 at 1.15926 and the daily EMA20 at 1.14748. The four-hour timeframe confirms this downward state. However, the one-hour trend is mixed, reflecting near-term indecision ahead of the macroeconomic releases. The 5-day extremes show a high at 1.14505 and a low at 1.1311. The broader 20-day window notes a high at 1.16533 and shares the same 1.1311 low. Ahead of the data, live EUR/USD action faces nearest resistance at R1 at 1.13717, while nearest support sits at the daily pivot at 1.13413.

Market Context and Positioning

Current news sentiment records a media mood of 100 out of 100, driven by a 46% bullish and 54% bearish share, while a separate opportunity reading scores 17 and leans bullish. In the futures market, CFTC Commitments of Traders data as of the week to September 22 shows large non-commercial traders were net short EUR/USD. During that week, speculators added to net short EUR/USD. Recent financial headlines from publishers including FX Street, InvestingCube, and FXEmpire indicate that market participants are evaluating the pair's recent downward pressure alongside shifting sentiment regarding the US dollar.

Price Action Scenarios

A stronger-than-expected inflation print could trigger upside momentum. A break above resistance at R1 at 1.13717 would open the way to a target of R2 at 1.14038. A move back below the daily pivot at 1.13413 would invalidate that bullish view. Conversely, a soft result could see sellers press lower. Should price clear support at S1 at 1.13092, it sets up a run toward S2 at 1.12788. A rebound above the daily pivot at 1.13413 would invalidate this bearish outlook. Traders mapping these boundaries can consult a pivot point calculator to track shifting intraday levels.