EUR/USD Forecast Today: Lagarde and Pivots Loom

Daily outlook Bearish bias Sep 29, 2026, 08:16 UTC

Sophia BennettSenior FX Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD consolidates near 1.1361 under broad bearish pressure as traders await high-impact speeches from ECB President Christine Lagarde and US economic data.

ECB Leadership Agenda: Speeches Shaping EUR/USD Momentum

Today’s European Central Bank calendar features several central bank appearances, highlighted by a high-impact speech from ECB President Christine Lagarde scheduled for 11:00 UTC. The central bank policy rhetoric begins earlier with ECB's Cipollone speaking at 07:45 UTC, followed by ECB's Vujčić at 11:30 UTC, ECB's Escrivá at 11:40 UTC, and a second scheduled address from Cipollone at 13:15 UTC. These policy speeches, alongside comments from the Fed's Musalem at 11:30 UTC, may heavily influence Eurozone interest rate expectations, as noted in reports by FX Street and Forexcom.

EUR/USD Trading in Today's Tight Range

Trading in the London session finds the live EUR/USD rate consolidating near 1.1361, representing a decline of -0.00094 or -0.08% on the day. Today's intraday range has remained narrow at 19.3 pips, bounded by a day high of 1.13735 and a day low of 1.13542. This tight price action represents just 40% of the 14-day average true range (ATR) of 0.00477, reflecting a market in waiting. Yesterday's session closed at 1.13704, after tracing out a high of 1.13906 and a low of 1.13525 from an opening price of 1.1375.

Trend and Momentum Technical Analysis

A consistent bearish tone persists across all major timeframes. According to our EUR/USD technical analysis, the daily trend remains firmly down, with the spot price trading below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1489, the 50-day EMA at 1.15229, and the 200-day EMA at 1.15945. The daily 14-period RSI sits in oversold territory at 27.1. This negative momentum is aligned across shorter-term charts, as both the H4 trend (with its 20-period EMA at 1.13824 and 50-period EMA at 1.14227) and the H1 trend (with its 20-period EMA at 1.13664 and 50-period EMA at 1.13747) are in downward states. Because the daily, H4, and H1 timeframes agree, the path of least resistance points lower.

Key Technical Levels and Potential Breakouts

For traders assessing key boundaries, the nearest technical resistance is the daily pivot at 1.13712, located 10.2 pips above the current price. Just beyond this level lies the psychological round resistance at 1.14. On the downside, the nearest immediate support is yesterday's low at 1.13525, which lies 8.5 pips below today's current level, followed closely by the round support level at 1.135. Looking at longer-term horizons, the 5-day low is established at 1.13525, while the 5-day high stands at 1.14776. Over a wider window, the 20-day low is located at 1.13525, whereas the 20-day high is positioned at 1.16533. You can configure custom support and resistance levels using our pivot point calculator.

Economic Calendar Highlights and Sentiment Indicators

Aside from central bank speeches, Eurozone economic data due today at 09:00 UTC includes the Economic Sentiment Indicator (estimated at 99, up from 98.4 previous), Consumer Confidence (projected flat at -16.5), and the Business Climate index (previous -0.23). Later, the US calendar brings the month-on-month Housing Price Index at 13:00 UTC (expected at 0.1% versus 0% previous), followed at 14:00 UTC by US Consumer Confidence and the US JOLTS Job Openings (estimated at 7.23, compared to 7.271 previous). Additional market cues may come from Fed's Bowman at 15:00 UTC and Fed's Barr at 16:40 UTC.

As broader macroeconomic context, US Treasury yields at the close of September 28, 2026, saw the 3-month yield at 4.28%, the 2-year yield at 4.92% (up 11 basis points), and the 10-year yield at 5.24% (up 7 basis points), which according to FXEmpire has supported the broader US Dollar. Independent media mood data shows a news coverage split with a bullish share of 58% and a bearish share of 42%, while the media mood score rose from 38 yesterday to 100 today. Concurrently, the independent opportunity reading moved from -10 to a bearish -21 over the last 24 hours. From a positioning standpoint, the weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report as of September 22, 2026, shows a net short EUR/USD speculator stance, with the weekly shift confirming that speculators added to net short EUR/USD.

Lagarde and Market Reactions: Bullish or Bearish Scenarios

Should today's speeches trigger an upside move, a sustained break above the R1 resistance trigger at 1.13898 would open the way toward the next target of R2 at 1.14093. This bullish view would be invalidated if the price moves back below the daily pivot at 1.13712. On the other hand, if bearish pressure forces a move below the S1 support trigger at 1.13517, the path would open toward S2 at 1.13331. A recovery back above the daily pivot at 1.13712 would invalidate this downward projection.

Bottom Line

The EUR/USD pair remains heavily anchored in a bearish trend across the H1, H4, and daily charts. However, with the current daily range compressed to 19.3 pips ahead of President Lagarde's high-impact address, traders should watch the daily pivot at 1.13712 and the S1 support at 1.13517 for signs of a breakout.