Why Is EUR/USD Moving Today? Sellers Target 1.1300

Market mover Bearish bias Sep 29, 2026, 17:03 UTC

Oliver HayesMarket Risk Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD is trading down 0.5% on the day at 1.13137 as sellers push price onto critical support at S3. The daily and intraday trends remain firmly pointed downward ahead of upcoming central bank commentary.

EUR/USD Tests Critical Support

During the New York session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.13137, down 0.00567 or 0.5% from the previous close. The pair has moved well beyond its typical volatility, dropping a multiple of 1.2 times its 14-day average true range and covering 62.5 pips. Sellers have driven price directly onto the nearest support level at S3, located at 1.13136. Trend analysis shows a down state across the daily, 4-hour, and 1-hour timeframes, with price remaining below the 200-day exponential moving average. The daily RSI reads 27.1, pointing to oversold conditions.

US Dollar Strength and Market Sentiment

Broad US Dollar momentum is dominating the newsflow today. Coverage from publishers including FXEmpire, Forexcom, and FX Street highlights a surging greenback that continues to test new highs while pressuring the Euro. Reports suggest this move may be linked to climbing Treasury yields and technically oversold conditions on the daily chart. For context, US Treasury yields at the daily close of September 28 saw the 2-year yield at 4.92%, up 11 basis points, while the 10-year yield added 7 basis points to reach 5.24%.

News sentiment data reflects a mixed picture, showing a bullish media tone at 58% and a media mood score of 100, while the separate opportunity reading registers a bearish score of -34. Positioning data offers another angle: as of the week to September 22, large speculators were net short EUR/USD, and speculators added to net short EUR/USD over the reporting period.

Central Bank Speeches and German Inflation Data

Traders have several events to navigate today, starting with a speech from the ECB's Lane at 18:00 UTC, followed by appearances from the Fed's Williams and Waller. Tomorrow brings a heavy slate of European releases to the economic calendar. German Retail Sales for both the year-over-year and month-over-month periods will be published, alongside German Consumer Price Index figures. Tomorrow also features French and Italian inflation updates and a non-monetary policy meeting from the ECB. You can measure your risk exposure around these releases with a position size calculator.

Technical Scenarios for EUR/USD

With price resting on support at 1.13136, the nearest resistance lies at S2 at 1.13331, which is 19.4 pips away. Reviewing recent historical ranges, the 5-day window recorded a high of 1.14776 and a low of 1.13525. For the broader 20-day period, the high stands at 1.16533, and the low is 1.13525.

In a bearish scenario, a break below the S3 trigger at 1.13136 would open the way to a target at the next round number of 1.13. This setup would be invalidated if price climbs back to the daily pivot at 1.13712. On the other hand, if a bullish scenario develops, a move above the R1 trigger at 1.13898 could set up a target test at R2 at 1.14093. A decline back to the daily pivot at 1.13712 would invalidate this upward view. Traders evaluating these scenarios can monitor live EUR/USD charts for confirmation.