EUR/USD Forecast Today: Key Support Tested in Tight Range

Daily outlook Bearish bias Sep 28, 2026, 06:03 UTC

Sophia BennettSenior FX Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD consolidates near 1.1381 in a tight Asian session. Daily, H4, and H1 charts show a unified bearish trend ahead of tomorrow's Eurozone data.

EUR/USD Consolidates in Tight Range Following Recent Selloff

The live EUR/USD rate is trading at 1.1381 during the Asian session, showing a daily decline of -0.00088 or -0.08% from the previous close. Intraday price action has been exceptionally muted so far, with the day high of 1.13906 and the day low of 1.13727 creating a narrow trading range of 17.9 pips. This quiet start represents just 37% of the 14-day Average True Range (ATR), which stands at 0.00485 (or 48.5 pips). The market is displaying quiet consolidation following Friday's session, which recorded an open of 1.13772, a high of 1.14103, a low of 1.13675, and a candle close of 1.13898.

Bearish Momentum Dominates the Technical Outlook

Our EUR/USD technical analysis reveals a clear, unified bearish bias across multiple timeframes. On the daily chart, the pair remains in a downward trend, trading well below its long-term daily EMA200 of 1.15962, as well as the daily EMA20 of 1.15015 and EMA50 of 1.15291. Momentum is deeply negative, with the daily 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) sitting at 28.9, which highlights near-term oversold conditions. The shorter timeframes fully agree with this downward trajectory; the H4 chart is in a down state, with the H4 EMA20 at 1.13961 and the H4 EMA50 at 1.14381, while the H1 chart also remains down with its H1 EMA20 at 1.1386 and H1 EMA50 at 1.13891.

Critical Support and Resistance Levels to Watch Today

For traders structuring their charts with a pivot point calculator, the daily pivot point sits at 1.13892. The nearest key resistance is located at this daily pivot of 1.13892, which is just 8.2 pips away from the current price. On the downside, the closest support is S1 at 1.13681, situated 12.9 pips below the current rate. Looking at broader boundaries, the 5-day range has a high of 1.14951 and a low of 1.13585. Over the last 20 days, the highest print is recorded at 1.16533, while the 20-day low is also at 1.13585. Key psychological round numbers are defined at 1.14 above the market and 1.135 below.

Trading Scenarios: Breakdown Versus Technical Rebound

We present two primary market scenarios based on key pivot levels. A bullish scenario would trigger upon a decisive break above the R1 resistance level at 1.14109, which could open the way toward R2 at 1.1432. This optimistic perspective would be invalidated if the price drops back below the daily pivot at 1.13892. Conversely, a bearish scenario would trigger if the price falls past S1 support at 1.13681, potentially targeting S2 at 1.13464. A move back above the daily pivot at 1.13892 would invalidate this bearish outlook.

Economic Calendar: Eurozone Inflation and Fed Speeches in Focus

The economic schedule is entirely quiet today, but several medium-impact events are scheduled for tomorrow. From the Eurozone, we will see the Spanish Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) at 07:00 UTC tomorrow, which has a previous reading of 4.6. This will be followed at 09:00 UTC tomorrow by the Eurozone Business Climate (previously -0.23), Economic Sentiment Indicator (estimated at 99 compared to 98.4 previous), and Consumer Confidence (estimated at -16.5, matching the previous -16.5). Later tomorrow, at 11:30 UTC, Federal Reserve policymaker Musalem is scheduled to deliver a speech. Additionally, news coverage from publishers like FX Street and Forexcom notes that the market is closely watching consolidation patterns above 1.1350 as a broader selloff progresses, with upcoming inflation, oil, and payroll metrics in view.

Providing macroeconomic context, the weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders report from the week to September 22, 2026, shows that large speculators hold a net short EUR/USD position of -52334 contracts. This reflects a major weekly shift, as speculators added to net short EUR/USD from the previous week's -26993 contracts. In bond markets, US Treasury yields at the close on September 25, 2026, saw the 3-month yield at 4.24%, the 2-year yield at 4.81% (down 6 basis points), and the 10-year yield at 5.17% (down 1 basis point). Finally, the current independent media mood is at 38 out of 100, down from the previous day's 76, while news sentiment is 59% bullish, news volume is at 29% of its 90-day average, and the opportunity reading is bearish at -17.

Bottom Line

With all major daily, H4, and H1 timeframes in a down state, the dominant technical pressure remains bearish despite the tight Asian session range. A clean break below S1 at 1.13681 is needed to confirm further downside toward S2 at 1.13464, while any recovery toward R1 at 1.14109 must first overcome the daily pivot at 1.13892. Traders should watch these key levels carefully ahead of tomorrow's Eurozone sentiment and inflation data.