EUR/USD Forecast Today: Price Trades Between S1 and Daily Pivot

Daily outlook Bearish bias Oct 29, 2026, 06:04 UTC

Sophia BennettSenior FX Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD trades defensively in the Asia session as technical momentum aligns to the downside. Traders look ahead to a heavy US economic docket featuring scheduled GDP and Core PCE inflation data today.

Where EUR/USD Stands Now

During the Asia session, EUR/USD sits between S1 at 1.112 and the daily pivot at 1.11443, as the available technical evidence leans distinctly downward. Nearest support lies at S1 at 1.112, with nearest resistance positioned at the daily pivot at 1.11443. The pair trades at 1.11373, declining 0.13% on the day, charting a day high of 1.11602 and a day low of 1.11331. This intraday price range of 27.1 pips currently covers 45% of the 14-day Average True Range, which sits at a broader 59.6 pips, as the market looks ahead to when London opens at 07:00 UTC.

Trend and Momentum

The moving averages and momentum oscillators agree on downside momentum across the board. The daily, H4, and H1 trends all point firmly down, reflecting a consistent structural weakness over these periods. Furthermore, the daily price action is positioned below the long-term 200-day EMA of 1.15305, underscoring the overarching negative bias. The daily RSI reads 35.5, complementing this bearish alignment without crossing into extreme conditions.

Levels That Matter

In terms of market structure, nearest resistance is established at the daily pivot at 1.11443, which sits 7 pips above current price action, while nearest support is located at S1 at 1.112, positioned 17.3 pips away. The previous day high stands at 1.11685, and the previous day low is recorded at 1.11122. Zooming out to capture a wider historical perspective, the 5-day window shows a high of 1.12553 and a low of 1.11122. The broader 20-day range spans from a high of 1.13361 down to a low of 1.11122. Key round levels frame the immediate trading area, with resistance approaching at 1.115 above and support waiting at 1.11 below.

Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

In a bullish scenario, a decisive break above R1 at 1.11763 would open the way to a higher target at R2 at 1.12006; a move back below the daily pivot at 1.11443 would invalidate this view. Conversely, in a bearish scenario, a break below the support level at S1 at 1.112 would open the way to S2 at 1.1088; a return above the daily pivot at 1.11443 would invalidate the downside setup.

What Could Move It Today

The economic calendar brings a substantial amount of US and Eurozone data to the forefront today. Starting at 10:00 UTC, the Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator comes due with an estimate of 97.5 against a previous 97.9, arriving alongside the Consumer Confidence and Business Climate figures. Later in the session, at 12:30 UTC, the schedule features US Gross Domestic Product Annualized carrying an estimate of 3.2 against a previous 2.2, while the Gross Domestic Product Price Index expects a 3.5 print versus 6.1 previously. Simultaneously, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index YoY anticipates 3.1 against 3 previously, and the corresponding MoM figure estimates 0.3 against 0.2. The broader Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index YoY is estimated at 3.6 against a previous 3.4, and the MoM print expects 0.5 versus 0.3. The slate of 12:30 UTC releases also includes Personal Income, Personal Spending, and Initial Jobless Claims.

Current newsflow themes primarily highlight Federal Reserve policy expectations, broader central bank outlooks, and technical vulnerabilities for the euro, according to reports published by FX Street and ExchangeRates. The media tone aligns with this backdrop, and the opportunity reading currently registers a bearish score of -67.

Turning to the positioning context, as of the week to October 20, large non-commercial speculators were net short EUR/USD; over that same reporting period, these speculators reduced net short EUR/USD. Broadening the macroeconomic view, US Treasury yields at the October 28 daily close provided additional context, showing the 2-year yield at 4.67%, down 3 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 5.05%, up 6 basis points.

Bottom Line

EUR/USD maintains a downward trajectory across all major timeframes as it holds between S1 and the daily pivot. Today's packed schedule of prominent US inflation and growth data populates the calendar as traders monitor these near-term technical thresholds.