What is the EUR/USD forecast today?

Technical indicators on the hourly, 4-hour, and daily charts point to a downward trend for EUR/USD. The pair sits between S1 at 1.1183 and the daily pivot at 1.12192 ahead of the London open.

What levels should traders watch for EUR/USD today?

Near-term resistance rests at the daily pivot of 1.12192, with further upside marked by R1 at 1.12506. Downside support is located at the previous day low of 1.11877, followed by S2 at 1.11516.

How might today's PMI data impact EUR/USD?

A dense schedule of preliminary PMI releases from France, Germany, the broader Eurozone, and the US spans the London and New York sessions. High-impact prints start with German manufacturing estimated at 54 and continue through US services estimated at 57.9.

EUR/USD Forecast Today: Technicals Point Lower Ahead of PMI Docket

Daily outlook Bearish bias Oct 23, 2026, 06:05 UTC

Sophia BennettSenior FX Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD remains pressured in the Asian session as technical indicators point lower across multiple timeframes. With a flurry of preliminary PMI releases on the calendar, the pair navigates near-term support at 1.11877.

Glass tower reflecting sunset beside a river

Price1.12106

Day change-0.03%

Day range1.12068 - 1.12259

ATR (14)0.00620

Resistance	Level	Support	Level
R3	1.13182	S1	1.11830
R2	1.12868	S2	1.11516
R1	1.12506	S3	1.11154
Previous day high	1.12553	Previous day low	1.11877
20-day high	1.14103	20-day low	1.11124
Daily pivot 1.12192. Data as of 2026-10-23 06:02 UTC; price from a live feed, levels computed from the previous completed daily bar.

EUR/USD 1-hour chart with the daily pivot at 1.12192, R1 1.12506, R2 1.12868, S1 1.11830, S2 1.11516 and the bullish and bearish scenario paths — EUR/USD, 1-hour candles with the daily pivot levels, the range between nearest support and resistance, and both scenario paths. Data as of 2026-10-23 06:02 UTC.

Today's Price Action and Range

During the Asia session, ahead of the London open at 07:00 UTC, EUR/USD sits at 1.12106, marking a daily decline of 0.03%. The market currently positions the pair between S1 at 1.1183 and the daily pivot at 1.12192. Today's price action has charted a high of 1.12259 and a low of 1.12068. This establishes a narrow 19.1-pip daily range that consumes just 31% of the 14-day average true range of 62 pips.

Trend and Momentum

The technical setup reveals a unified structure across the primary timeframes, producing a clearly defined bearish bias. The daily, H4, and H1 charts all reflect a downward trend in progress. Looking specifically at the daily chart, price remains firmly positioned below the 200-day exponential moving average of 1.15432. The momentum data aligns with this bearish structure, as the 14-day daily RSI registers at 39, indicating sustained downside pressure.

Levels That Matter

Overhead, the nearest resistance is the daily pivot at 1.12192, located 8.6 pips above current price action. Below the market, the nearest support rests at the previous day low of 1.11877, positioned 22.9 pips away. The pivot levels frame broader resistance higher up through R1 at 1.12506 and R2 at 1.12868, while deeper support sits down at S2 at 1.11516 and S3 at 1.11154.

Reviewing the recent extremes, the 5-day window captures a high of 1.12688 and a low of 1.11805. Taking a broader view reveals the 20-day range bounded by a high of 1.14103 and a low of 1.11124. Traders will also note the psychological round numbers framing the current market, positioned at 1.12 below and 1.125 above.

Bearish and Bullish Scenarios

In a bearish scenario, a break below S1 at 1.1183 would open the way to S2 at 1.11516. A move back above the daily pivot at 1.12192 would invalidate this view. Alternatively, a bullish path requires a decisive break above R1 at 1.12506, which would open the way to R2 at 1.12868. This upside perspective would be invalidated by a move back below the daily pivot at 1.12192.

High-Impact Data and Market Context

Today's economic calendar is dominated by preliminary PMI releases that stand as the primary scheduled catalysts. Action begins early at 07:15 UTC when French HCOB Services and Manufacturing PMIs are due, estimated at 50.8 and 50.6 respectively. High-impact German HCOB PMIs follow at 07:30 UTC, with Manufacturing anticipated at 54 and Services at 53.1. Eurozone-wide HCOB PMIs arrive at 08:00 UTC, carrying estimates of 52.8 for both the Manufacturing and Services sectors. Moving into the New York session, US S&P Global Services and Manufacturing PMIs drop at 13:45 UTC, estimated at 57.9 and 55.6, before UoM 5-year and 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations arrive at 14:00 UTC with estimates of 3.5 and 4.7 respectively.

Financial media coverage across publishing outlets like FX Street, ExchangeRates, Forexcom, and FXEmpire centers largely on the Euro's ongoing softness against the dollar. The dominant newsflow highlights headwinds stemming from French fiscal risks and broader bearish technical patterns, which remain central to the narrative despite a recent pullback in US Treasury yields. Independent news sentiment readings directly reflect this high-focus environment, showing elevated media volume at 185% of the 90-day average, paired alongside a bearish opportunity read of -68.

Providing context from the bond market, US Treasury yields at the close of October 22 saw the 2-year yield at 4.65%, down 16 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 4.96%, down 17 basis points. In the futures market, the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report as of the week to October 13 shows large speculators were net short EUR/USD by 137,573 contracts, as these non-commercial traders added to net short EUR/USD positioning.

Bottom Line

EUR/USD approaches the London open entrenched in a bearish technical trend across the H1, H4, and daily charts. Imminent and high-impact PMI data from both the Eurozone and the US will test the current narrow ranges. Focus remains on the daily pivot at 1.12192 as immediate resistance and the previous day low at 1.11877 as near-term support.