EUR ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate

Event preview Bearish bias Oct 29, 2026, 03:18 UTC

Aisha RahmanGlobal Macro Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD trends lower on the daily chart as the market approaches today's ECB rate announcements. The pair sits tightly between the daily pivot and the R1 resistance level.

Release dates, past figures and how prices moved after each one: ECB Interest Rate Decision calendar page.

Market Snapshot: EUR/USD Ahead of Rate Decision

Today at 13:15 UTC, the European Central Bank releases its monetary policy decisions. The main event combines the ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate, which carries an estimate of 2.65% against a previous 2.65%, and the ECB Rate On Deposit Facility, estimated at 2.5% against a previous 2.5%. Recent news coverage discusses a US dollar pullback ahead of a Federal Reserve decision, alongside euro vulnerability tied to a lending slowdown, as noted by publishers such as FXEmpire, Commerzbank, and ING.

During the Asia session, EUR/USD trades at 1.11471, down 0.04% on the day from the previous close at 1.11521. The pair sits between the daily pivot at 1.11443 and R1 at 1.11763. The daily trend remains down, with price positioned below the 200-day EMA at 1.15305, and the four-hour trend also points lower, while the one-hour trend is mixed. The five-day extremes rest at a high of 1.12553 and a low of 1.11122. Across a broader window, the 20-day high sits at 1.13361 with the 20-day low at 1.11122.

The nearest support rests at the daily pivot at 1.11443, just 2.8 pips away. To the upside, the closest resistance is the previous day high at 1.11685, positioned 21.4 pips from the current price. Today's intraday range has covered 27.1 pips, taking up 45% of the 59.6-pip 14-day average true range.

ECB Rate Estimates and Event History

Looking at the event history, 7 past releases are counted. The typical move an hour after was 14 pips, and the typical move four hours after was 14.7 pips. The largest move an hour later was 29.4 pips on 2026-03-19. In the 0 releases that came in above the estimate, EUR/USD closed higher an hour later 0 times. Following the 0 releases that came in below the estimate, the pair closed lower 0 times. A move of the typical 14-pip size upward from the current price reaches 1.11611, with no key levels inside that distance. A move of that size downward reaches 1.11331, crossing the daily pivot at 1.11443. This reflects past behaviour and is not a forecast of this release.

Scenarios for EUR/USD Post-Decision

Independent of the release outcome, EUR/USD structure outlines two defined paths. A break above R1 at 1.11763 would open the way to R2 at 1.12006; a move back below the daily pivot at 1.11443 would invalidate this upside view. On the downside, a break below S1 at 1.112 would open the way to S2 at 1.1088. A move back above the daily pivot at 1.11443 would invalidate the bearish setup.

US Macro Calendar and Context

In the background, US Treasury yields at the October 28 close showed the 2-year yield at 4.67%, down 3 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 5.05%, up 6 basis points. As of the week to October 20, speculators reduced net short EUR/USD positioning in the futures market. News sentiment shows volume at 183% of the 90-day average, with an independent media opportunity reading registering at -37, categorized as bearish.

Today's economic calendar carries a dense lineup of additional reports. At 10:00 UTC today, the European Economic and Monetary Union releases Consumer Confidence with an estimate of -17.9, Business Climate, and the Economic Sentiment Indicator carrying an estimate of 97.5. Following this, a heavy block of US data arrives at 12:30 UTC today. This includes Gross Domestic Product Annualized with an estimate of 3.2%, and the Gross Domestic Product Price Index estimated at 3.5%. The US docket at 12:30 UTC today also features the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index month-over-month carrying an estimate of 0.3%, the year-over-year reading estimated at 3.1%, and the quarter-over-quarter reading with an estimate of 2.4%. Additional US releases at 12:30 UTC today include the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index month-over-month estimated at 0.5%, year-over-year estimated at 3.6%, and the quarter-over-quarter reading at 3.4%, along with Personal Spending estimated at 0.6%, Personal Income month-over-month estimated at 0.3%, and Initial Jobless Claims carrying an estimate of 199.

Going into today's 13:15 UTC ECB announcements, the estimate for the Main Refinancing Operations Rate is 2.65% and the Deposit Facility Rate is 2.5%. EUR/USD trades with the daily pivot at 1.11443 acting as nearest support and the previous day high at 1.11685 as the nearest resistance.