EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Bearish Setup Ahead of Fed Decision

Daily outlook Bearish bias Oct 28, 2026, 06:05 UTC

Sophia BennettSenior FX Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD trades with a bearish bias between S1 and the daily pivot ahead of today's FOMC decision. Technical indicators across all major timeframes point downward, placing immediate focus on the nearby 20-day low.

EUR/USD Position and Session Volatility

During the Asia session, EUR/USD sits between S1 at 1.11043 and the daily pivot at 1.1141. Price currently stands at 1.11184, registering a 0.05% decline from the day open at 1.11238. Early action remains confined to a narrow 15.2-pip session range, bounded by the day high at 1.11314 and the day low at 1.11162. This tight movement accounts for just 25% of the 14-day average true range of 59.8 pips. Yesterday's session ended with the previous close at 1.11238 after covering a wider 56.3-pip range.

Trend Alignment and Key Levels

Technical indicators point firmly downward, with the daily, 4-hour, and 1-hour timeframes all agreeing on a bearish trend state. On the daily chart, price holds below the 200-period exponential moving average at 1.15339, accompanied by a 14-day relative strength index reading of 30.6. The nearest resistance is the previous day low at 1.11215, located just 3.1 pips above the current price. The nearest support rests at the 20-day low at 1.11124, sitting 6 pips below.

Looking at broader price history, the 5-day window spans from a high of 1.12553 down to a low of 1.11215. The 20-day window captures a high of 1.13795 and a low of 1.11124. Round levels provide further structure, with 1.11 situated below the current price and 1.115 sitting above it.

Conditional Technical Scenarios

For the bullish scenario, a break above R1 at 1.11606 would open the way to R2 at 1.11973. A move back below the daily pivot at 1.1141 would invalidate this upward view.

On the bearish side, a break below S1 at 1.11043 would clear the path toward S2 at 1.10847. A reversal back above the daily pivot at 1.1141 would invalidate the downward setup.

Event Risks and News Sentiment

As London opens at 07:00 UTC, focus turns to the German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey, which carries an estimate of -31 against a previous print of -30.6. The dominant economic calendar events arrive during the US session, starting at 18:00 UTC with the Fed Interest Rate Decision—estimated to hold at 4—and the Monetary Policy Statement. The FOMC Press Conference will follow at 18:30 UTC. Tomorrow at 10:00 UTC, traders will see euro-area data including Consumer Confidence, Business Climate, and the Economic Sentiment Indicator.

Current financial newsflow centers on central bank policy outlooks for the ECB and the Fed, easing French debt concerns, and recent US durable goods orders, as reported by FX Street, Forexcom, and FXEmpire. News sentiment data registers a bearish opportunity reading with a score of -67. In a separate measure, news volume is running at 159% of the 90-day average.

In the futures market, the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week to October 20 indicates large speculators are net short EUR/USD. However, the data shows speculators reduced net short EUR/USD exposure compared to the prior week. For broader context, US Treasury yields at the October 27 daily close placed the 2-year yield at 4.7%, up 2 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 4.99%, down 1 basis point.

Bottom Line

EUR/USD maintains a confirmed down trend across all major timeframes as the market braces for the Fed's policy update. Participants checking the live EUR/USD rate will watch whether price tests the nearby 20-day low at 1.11124 before approaching the bearish trigger at S1 (1.11043), or if it reverses toward near-term resistance.