EUR/USD News Today: Pair Tests 1.11347 Low Before ECB and US Data

Market news Bearish bias Oct 27, 2026, 10:06 UTC

Sophia BennettSenior FX Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD trades lower during the London session, sitting just above support at S2 near 1.1137. The daily trend remains down as markets await US durable goods data and a speech from ECB President Lagarde later today.

Current Price Action and Daily Range

The London session sees the live EUR/USD rate trading at 1.11393, which is down 0.3% from the previous close of 1.11729. Price currently sits positioned between support at S2 (1.1137) and resistance at S1 (1.1155), operating below the round number resistance at 1.115. Over the course of the session, the pair has established a day high at 1.11778 and a day low at 1.11347, carving out a daily range of 43.1 pips. This intraday range covers 72% of the 60.1-pip 14-day ATR. Looking at recent historical extremes, the 5-day window shows a high of 1.12601 and a low of 1.11725. The broader 20-day span records a high of 1.13795 and a low of 1.11124. Performance metrics log a 0.63% decline over the past five days and a 2.03% drop over the last twenty days.

Market Context and Positioning

News coverage today revolves around the impending Federal Reserve interest rate decision, broad geopolitical influences, and declining loan demand across Eurozone banks, as reported by publications including FX Street, Action Forex, Tokenpost, and WSJ. These are topics being reported, not demonstrated drivers of price. The media mood from an independent provider registers a bearish opportunity reading of -70, with news volume standing at 151% of its 90-day average.

In the futures market, CFTC Commitments of Traders data as of the week to October 20 shows large speculators were net short EUR/USD. Over that reporting period, speculators reduced net short EUR/USD. Providing broader macroeconomic context, US Treasury yields on October 26 saw the 10-year yield close at 5% and the 2-year yield settle at 4.68%, down 1 basis point. The 2s10s curve was recorded at 32 basis points.

Trend Indicators and Technical Scenarios

Trend indicators point lower across the board. The daily chart displays a down state, with price operating below the 200-day exponential moving average of 1.15373. The daily EMA20 is positioned at 1.12498, and the EMA50 sits at 1.13552. The 4-hour chart confirms this down state, carrying an EMA20 of 1.11895 and an EMA50 of 1.12045. The 1-hour timeframe also shows a down state, with the EMA20 at 1.11674 and the EMA50 at 1.11845. On the daily chart, the RSI registers at 34.8.

Turning to technical levels, the nearest support is S2 at 1.1137, located just 2.3 pips away from the current price. The nearest resistance is S1 at 1.1155, situated 15.7 pips above the market. A break below S2 at 1.1137 would open the way to S3 at 1.11016; a move back above the daily pivot at 1.11904 would invalidate it. Alternatively, a break above R1 at 1.12084 would open the way to R2 at 1.12438; a move back below the daily pivot at 1.11904 would invalidate that view.

Today's Economic Calendar

New York joins at 12:00 UTC, opening an economic calendar populated with US data releases. The schedule starts today at 12:15 UTC with the medium-impact US ADP Employment Change 4-week average, which previously read 18.5. At 12:30 UTC, medium-impact US Durable Goods Orders carry an estimate of 0.6 against a previous 0. Alongside this, Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft previously posted 1.6, and Durable Goods Orders ex Defense printed at 0.1. Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation expects a 0.6 reading, up from the previous 0.3. Later today at 13:00 UTC, the medium-impact US Housing Price Index is estimated at 0.1, following a previous 0.3. US New Home Sales Change, which previously read 6.4, and Consumer Confidence follow at 14:00 UTC. For the Euro, high-impact event risk arrives when ECB President Lagarde delivers a speech today at 17:00 UTC. Tomorrow, the calendar highlights the German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey at 07:00 UTC, estimated at -31 against a previous reading of -30.6.