AUD/USD Forecast Today: Mixed Trade Ahead of US ISM and RBA

Daily outlook Neutral bias Nov 2, 2026, 06:51 UTC

Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst

AUD/USD trades with mixed momentum between S1 at 0.70145 and the daily pivot at 0.70284. Traders look toward today's US ISM Manufacturing PMI and tomorrow's RBA rate decision.

AUD/USD Position and Intraday Volatility

Trading at 0.70166 during the Asian session, AUD/USD sits between S1 at 0.70145 and the daily pivot at 0.70284. Price is down 0.00138 on the day from the previous close of 0.70304. Action has been contained between a day high of 0.70334 and a day low of 0.70136. The day's range of 19.8 pips represents 45% of the 14-day ATR of 44.3 pips.

Trend Conditions and Momentum

The timeframes offer conflicting signals, presenting a mixed technical setup. The daily trend state is mixed, though price remains above the 200-day EMA at 0.69881, while the 14-day daily RSI reads 52.6. The 4-hour trend state is also mixed, contrasting with the 1-hour trend which points down.

Key Price Levels in Focus

The nearest support rests at S1 at 0.70145, while the nearest resistance is the daily pivot at 0.70284. Below S1, further pivot support lies at S2 at 0.69987 and S3 at 0.69848, with a round level below price at 0.7. Above the daily pivot, resistance targets include R1 at 0.70442, R2 at 0.70581, and R3 at 0.70739, alongside a round level above at 0.705. The previous day's high reached 0.70422 and the previous day's low dropped to 0.70125. Over a broader horizon, the 5-day range covers a high of 0.7067 and a low of 0.70082. The 20-day range spans from a high of 0.7067 down to a low of 0.68932.

Directional Scenarios

In a bullish scenario, a break above R1 at 0.70442 would open the way to R2 at 0.70581. A move back below the daily pivot at 0.70284 would invalidate this view. For the bearish case, a drop that clears S1 at 0.70145 would open the way to S2 at 0.69987. A recovery back above the daily pivot at 0.70284 would invalidate the breakdown.

Macro Catalysts and Market Context

With the Asian session underway and London set to open at 07:00 UTC, newsflow themes focus on upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia rate expectations and US midterms, as reported by FX Street and Forexcom. The opportunity reading from news sentiment data registers a score of -61, which is bearish. Looking at speculator positioning as of the week to October 27, traders were net short AUD/USD, and speculators added to net short AUD/USD. In the bond market, US Treasury yields at the daily close on October 30 showed the 2-year yield at 4.56%, down 5 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 4.94%, down 4 basis points.

Today's economic calendar features US ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC, carrying an estimate of 54.6 against a previous 54.5. Other 15:00 UTC components include Prices Paid (estimate 77, previous 77.9), the New Orders Index (previous 55.3), and the Employment Index (previous 52.7). Later, the Fed's Goolsbee speaks at 16:15 UTC, followed by the Loan Officer Survey at 19:00 UTC. Tomorrow brings the high-impact RBA Interest Rate Decision at 03:30 UTC, with markets noting an estimate of 4.85 against a previous 4.6.

Bottom Line

AUD/USD enters the session with mixed trends across the daily and intraday timeframes, containing momentum. Price action is currently wedged between S1 at 0.70145 and the daily pivot at 0.70284, awaiting direction from US data and the upcoming RBA decision.