AUD/USD forecast today: Neutral bias near the daily pivot
Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst
AUD/USD is trading in a narrow band near its daily pivot as conflicting timeframes leave the technical bias neutral. Markets are looking ahead to US Federal Reserve speeches and Australian PMI data for fresh direction.
| Resistance | Level | Support | Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | 0.71776 | S1 | 0.70970 |
| R2 | 0.71585 | S2 | 0.70779 |
| R1 | 0.71373 | S3 | 0.70567 |
| Previous day high | 0.71393 | Previous day low | 0.70990 |
| 20-day high | 0.72369 | 20-day low | 0.70740 |
| Daily pivot 0.71182. Data as of 2026-09-22 04:52 UTC; price from a live feed, levels computed from the previous completed daily bar. | |||
AUD/USD stabilizes in Asian trade
During the Asia session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.71198, posting a gain of 0.00036 on the day. The pair has established a day range from a low of 0.7097 to a high of 0.71249. This intraday movement covers 27.9 pips, which accounts for 65% of the 42.9-pip 14-day average true range.
Trend and momentum signals conflict
The technical structure for AUD/USD currently points to a neutral outlook, as the primary timeframes disagree on market direction. The daily trend remains mixed, though price is positioned above the 200-day EMA of 0.69596. Momentum on this timeframe offers little clarity, with the daily RSI sitting at 47.3.
Lower down, the H4 chart exhibits a downward trend, while the H1 chart is also showing mixed signals. Until these timeframes align, the pair lacks a definitive directional bias.
Key technical levels for the session
The nearest support rests at the daily pivot of 0.71182, located 1.6 pips below current price action. On the upside, the nearest resistance is R1 at 0.71373, sitting 17.5 pips away. Beyond these immediate barriers, the market faces round numbers at 0.71 below and 0.715 above price.
Looking at recent extremes, the previous day high printed at 0.71393 and the low at 0.7099. Over a broader horizon, the 5-day extremes span from a high of 0.71401 to a low of 0.7074, while the 20-day high extends up to 0.72369.
Trading scenarios
In the bullish scenario, a break above R1 at 0.71373 would open the way to the R2 target at 0.71585. A move back below the daily pivot at 0.71182 would invalidate this view.
Alternatively, the bearish setup depends on sellers pushing price below S1 at 0.7097. Such a break exposes the S2 target at 0.70779. This bearish case is invalidated if the market reclaims the daily pivot at 0.71182.
Macro catalysts and broader sentiment
Today's economic calendar features the US ADP Employment Change 4-week average at 12:15 UTC, checking in against a previous print of 16.25. Focus will then shift to commentary from Federal Reserve officials, with speeches scheduled from Williams at 14:05 UTC, Jefferson at 14:20 UTC, and Barkin at 17:00 UTC. Later in the session at 23:00 UTC, Australian data is on deck with the S&P Global Manufacturing, Composite, and Services PMIs.
Financial news coverage discusses the pair's technical posture as markets look toward upcoming US-China summit talks and labor data, with analysis published by outlets including FX Street and Forexcom. Media mood data from an independent provider reflects a 65% bullish tone, scoring 100 out of 100 and generating a bullish opportunity reading.
For broader context, weekly CFTC data as of the week to September 15 shows speculators added to net short AUD/USD positions. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields closed on September 21 with the 2-year yield at 4.76% and the 10-year yield at 4.96%, down 5 basis points.
Bottom line
AUD/USD is trading near the 0.71182 daily pivot amid conflicting trends across the major timeframes. Market direction today hinges on the scheduled Fed speeches and the late-session Australian PMI figures.
FAQ
What are the scheduled economic events for AUD/USD today?
Today's calendar includes scheduled speeches from Federal Reserve officials Williams at 14:05 UTC, Jefferson at 14:20 UTC, and Barkin at 17:00 UTC. Later, the Australian S&P Global Manufacturing, Composite, and Services PMIs are due at 23:00 UTC.
What are the key technical levels for AUD/USD to watch?
The nearest support level is the daily pivot at 0.71182, while the closest resistance sits at R1 at 0.71373. Traders are also monitoring the round levels of 0.71 below and 0.715 above the current price.
How does the Australian PMI data factor into today's session?
The Australian S&P Global Manufacturing, Composite, and Services PMIs are scheduled for release today at 23:00 UTC. Traders will compare the actual prints to their respective previous marks of 52, 52.7, and 53.2.