EUR/USD News Today: Euro Drops 0.56% Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Market mover Bearish bias Oct 7, 2026, 10:06 UTC

Oliver HayesMarket Risk Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD is down 0.56% in the London session, testing the previous day low at 1.12022 with support at S2 1.11718 below; a firmer dollar and euro-area fiscal concerns are in focus ahead of today's FOMC minutes.

EUR/USD Slides Below the Previous Day's Low

EUR/USD trades at 1.11955 during the London session, down 0.0063 on the day, a decline of 0.56%, after opening at 1.1257 and swinging between a day high of 1.12622 and a day low of 1.11786. The day's range of 83.6 pips already equals 140% of the 14-day average true range of 59.6 pips, and the decline itself is running at about 1.1 times the pair's average daily range, as measured against the previous close of 1.12585.

That range is also wider than yesterday's, when the pair moved 73.8 pips between an open of 1.12203 and a close of 1.12585, with a high of 1.1276 and a low of 1.12022. Price now sits between the S2 and S1 pivot levels, with every tracked trend reading — daily, four-hour and one-hour — pointing down, which keeps today's lean tilted toward the downside.

Fiscal Worries and a Firmer Dollar in the Newsflow

Commentary carried by FX Street cites Commerzbank and MUFG pointing to renewed concern over euro-area fiscal conditions as a possible drag on the single currency, while UOB, also via FX Street, described the pair's recent bounce as running into resistance. Forex.com linked part of the dollar's firmness to a rebound in oil prices, and Action Forex framed the session as one of waiting on the Federal Reserve. None of these reports prove why the pair has moved; they describe themes that may be contributing to today's session.

Levels Now: Pinned Between S2 and S1

The nearest resistance is the previous day low at 1.12022, just 6.7 pips above current trade, while the nearest support is S2 at 1.11718, 23.7 pips below. The daily pivot sits at 1.12456, with R1 at 1.12889, R2 at 1.13194 and R3 at 1.13627 above it, and S1 at 1.12151 and S3 at 1.11413 completing the board below — see ForexR's pivot point calculator for how these are derived.

Over the past five sessions, EUR/USD has ranged between a high of 1.13795 and a low of 1.11603. Looking out twenty days, the high stretches to 1.16533 against that same 1.11603 low, showing how far the pair has pulled back from the top of the wider window. The daily chart has price below its 20-, 50- and 200-period EMAs, at 1.13892, 1.14692 and 1.158 respectively, with the 14-day RSI at 27; the four-hour and one-hour charts carry the same down reading, with no conflict between timeframes today. On a five-day basis the pair is lower by 1.27%, and over twenty days it is down 3.67%. More background on reading these swings sits in ForexR's guide to the ATR indicator.

Two Paths From Here

A break above R1 at 1.12889 would open the way toward R2 at 1.13194, while a retreat back below the daily pivot at 1.12456 would call that attempt into question. On the other side, clearing S2 at 1.11718 would point toward S3 at 1.11413, whereas a reclaim of the daily pivot at 1.12456 would undercut the bearish case. Both paths cover a similar distance, about 30.5 pips from trigger to target in either direction.

FOMC Minutes Today, a Busy Euro Calendar Tomorrow

Today's calendar carries an ECB speech from Vujčić at 17:30 UTC, rated medium impact, followed by the FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC, rated high impact. Tomorrow brings German trade balance data at 06:00 UTC (previous 21.3, estimate 19), a Eurogroup meeting at 08:00 UTC, a speech from the Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC, an ECB speech from Lane at 10:00 UTC, the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 11:30 UTC (high impact), and US initial jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (previous 197, estimate 200). ForexR's guide to using an economic calendar covers how to weigh releases like these.

CFTC data as of the week to September 29 show large speculators net short EUR/USD in Euro FX futures, having added to that net short position over the week — a positioning snapshot, not a forecast. US Treasury yields at the October 6 close showed the 2-year at 4.79%, down 5 basis points, and the 10-year at 5.27%, down 4 basis points, context for dollar demand rather than proof of direction.

News sentiment on the pair is tilted bearish, with 53% of coverage reading negative against 47% positive, and media mood at 100 out of 100. Separately, the opportunity read, a distinct score, stands at -42, a bearish reading; none of this reflects trader positioning or predicts the next move.

Bottom Line

With price between S2 and S1, the previous day low at 1.12022 just overhead and every tracked trend reading pointing down, the setup leans bearish into today's FOMC Minutes. A slip through S2 at 1.11718 keeps S3 at 1.11413 in view, while only a reclaim of the daily pivot at 1.12456 would shift that picture; live levels are on ForexR's EUR/USD rate and chart page.