What are the key levels for EUR/USD today?

EUR/USD is positioned between S2 at 1.11879 and S1 at 1.12203. The nearest resistance level is the 5-day low of 1.12143, while immediate support is S2 at 1.11879.

What is the technical trend for EUR/USD?

The technical trend is strictly bearish across all major timeframes. The daily, H4, and H1 charts all show downward structures, with daily price trading below the 200-period exponential moving average of 1.15855.

What economic events could impact EUR/USD today?

The European calendar features multiple PMI reports and ECB speeches throughout the morning. In the US session, the high-impact ISM Services PMI is scheduled for 14:00 UTC, with an estimated reading of 55.7.

EUR/USD Forecast Today: Euro Sinks Toward S2 Ahead of US PMI Data

Daily outlook Bearish bias Oct 5, 2026, 06:03 UTC

Sophia BennettSenior FX Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD has dropped sharply in the Asia session, trading at 1.11927 in a unified bearish trend. Traders face immediate support at S2 ahead of US ISM Services data.

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Price1.11927

Day change-0.53%

Day range1.11603 - 1.12604

ATR (14)0.00553

Resistance	Level	Support	Level
R3	1.13495	S1	1.12203
R2	1.13171	S2	1.11879
R1	1.12849	S3	1.11557
Previous day high	1.12848	Previous day low	1.12202
20-day high	1.16533	20-day low	1.12143
Daily pivot 1.12525. Data as of 2026-10-05 06:01 UTC; price from a live feed, levels computed from the previous completed daily bar.

EUR/USD 1-hour chart with the daily pivot at 1.12525, R1 1.12849, R2 1.13171, S1 1.12203, S2 1.11879 and the bullish and bearish scenario paths — EUR/USD, 1-hour candles with the daily pivot levels, the range between nearest support and resistance, and both scenario paths. Data as of 2026-10-05 06:01 UTC.

Euro Under Heavy Selling Pressure in the Asia Session

EUR/USD is trading at 1.11927 in the Asia session, sitting between S2 at 1.11879 and S1 at 1.12203. The pair is down 0.53% for the day, marking a sharp intraday drop. Today's price action covers 100.1 pips, bounded by a high of 1.12604 and a low of 1.11603. This move substantially outpaces the 14-day Average True Range of 55.3 pips, operating at 181% of typical daily volatility expectations. Immediate support rests at S2 at 1.11879, which is 4.8 pips away, while the nearest resistance stands at the 5-day low of 1.12143.

Technical Breakdown: Assessing the Bearish Momentum

The trend firmly favors the downside across all major timeframes. On the daily chart, EUR/USD remains in a downward state, trading below the 200-period exponential moving average of 1.15855. The shorter daily moving averages reflect the same momentum, with the 50-period at 1.14883 and the 20-period at 1.14221. The H4 and H1 charts confirm this bearish alignment, both displaying downward structures below their respective moving averages. Daily momentum is heavily compressed, reading at 20.8 on the 14-period RSI. Because the daily, H4, and H1 timeframes all agree, the technical bias is strictly bearish.

Beyond the immediate support and resistance, the technical landscape features several distinct price barriers. Yesterday's session ended with a close of 1.12526, following a 64.6-pip daily range between a high of 1.12848 and a low of 1.12202. The 5-day window spans from a high of 1.13906 down to a low of 1.12143. Zooming out, the broader 20-day window extends from a high of 1.16533 to a low of 1.12143. Round numbers flank the current trading zone, with 1.115 below and 1.12 above. Pivot levels are anchored by the daily pivot at 1.12525, surrounded by S1 at 1.12203 and R1 at 1.12849.

Intraday Scenarios: Support Rebounds vs. Downward Continuation

In a bearish scenario, a break below the trigger level of S2 at 1.11879 would open the way to S3 at 1.11557. A move back above the daily pivot at 1.12525 would invalidate this downward path.

Conversely, a bullish setup requires a break above R1 at 1.12849, which would act as the trigger to open the way to a target of R2 at 1.13171. A move back below the daily pivot at 1.12525 would invalidate this upward view.

US ISM Services PMI Looms as Key Driver

Looking ahead to when London opens at 07:00 UTC, today's calendar is packed with European and US economic data. The European releases begin with the Spanish HCOB Services PMI at 07:15 UTC (previous 57.8), followed by the German HCOB Services PMI at 07:55 UTC (estimated at 52.9). The EMU HCOB Composite PMI arrives at 08:00 UTC (estimated at 53.1). EMU Producer Price Index data follows at 09:00 UTC, carrying an estimated 1.9% month-over-month increase. Speeches from ECB officials Nagel, Lane, and Schnabel are scheduled throughout the European morning.

In the US session, the high-impact ISM Services PMI is scheduled for 14:00 UTC, with estimates pointing to a reading of 55.7 compared to the previous 55.4. It will be accompanied by the ISM Services Prices Paid and New Orders Index releases. Earlier, at 13:45 UTC, the US S&P Global Composite PMI drops, carrying an estimate of 58.4.

News coverage from FX Street, Invezz, and ExchangeRates highlights the euro's steep intraday drop and medium-term downward trajectory. Media mood is measured at a score of 66, with a bearish opportunity reading and 59% of coverage reflecting a bearish tone. As of the week to September 29, speculators added to net short EUR/USD positioning in the futures market. As background context, US Treasury yields at the October 2 close saw the 2-year yield at 4.83%, up 5 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 5.28%, up 4 basis points.

Bottom Line

EUR/USD heads toward the London session under significant selling pressure, fully aligned in a bearish trend across the daily, H4, and H1 timeframes. Action at S2 at 1.11879 will clarify the immediate directional bias ahead of key European PMI reports and the US ISM Services release.