Why Is EUR/USD Moving Today? Price Slides Below 1.1200

Market mover Bearish bias Oct 5, 2026, 11:19 UTC

Oliver HayesMarket Risk Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD is trading lower in the London session, weighed down by broad bearish momentum across multiple timeframes. Traders are looking ahead to the New York session and the upcoming US ISM Services PMI release.

Euro Under Heavy Pressure Ahead of Key US PMI Data

In the London session, EUR/USD sits between S2 at 1.11879 and S1 at 1.12203. The current price is 1.11965, putting the pair down 0.00561, or 0.5%, on the day. The evidence leans heavily in one direction, as the daily, four-hour, and one-hour timeframes all display a downward trend. With this alignment across timeframes, the immediate bias is bearish. The nearest support rests at S2 at 1.11879, while the nearest resistance is positioned at the five-day low of 1.12143.

The day's price action covers a span of 100.1 pips, meaning the pair has moved more than its average daily range. Looking at yesterday's bar, yesterday's close was 1.12526, and the previous day's range was 64.6 pips. The pair is currently trading beneath the round level of 1.12. On the longer-term daily chart, the price is trading below the 200-day exponential moving average of 1.15855, and the daily RSI stands at 20.8.

Newsflow surrounding the euro points to broader weakness, with publications like FX Street, Forexcom, and FXEmpire noting the pair's sharp descent. The coverage centers around shifting US Federal Reserve rate bets and a softer outlook for the euro against its major peers. Independent news sentiment data shows a 59% bearish share and a 41% bullish share. The media mood stands at 66 out of 100, down from the previous day's reading of 82, and the opportunity reading is bearish.

Fundamental Drivers: US ISM Services PMI

New York joins the market at 12:00 UTC, and the economic calendar shows upcoming data releases from the United States. Today features the high-impact US ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC, carrying an estimate of 55 against a previous print of 55.4. Additional releases scheduled for 14:00 UTC include the ISM Services Prices Paid, the ISM Services New Orders Index, and the ISM Services Employment Index. Prior to these, the S&P Global Composite PMI is scheduled for 13:45 UTC, with an estimate of 58.4 matching the previous reading.

To provide context from the bond market, US Treasury yields at the daily close on October 2 saw the 2-year yield at 4.83%, up 5 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 5.28%, higher by 4 basis points. In the futures market, weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders data as of the week to September 29 shows that large speculators added to their net short EUR/USD position. The longer-term performance figures show the pair is down 1.7% over the past five days and has dropped 3.58% over the past twenty days.

Key Downside Targets and Potential Reversal Scenarios

Focusing on the EUR/USD price paths, the bearish scenario targets lower support zones. A break below S2 at 1.11879 would open the way to S3 at 1.11557. A move back above the daily pivot at 1.12525 would invalidate this view.

Conversely, a bullish reversal would require pushing through higher resistance levels. Buyers pushing price beyond R1 at 1.12849 could expose the next target at R2 at 1.13171. This perspective holds unless the pair retreats beneath the daily pivot at 1.12525, which would nullify the setup.

Examining the recent technical extremes, the five-day high is located at 1.13906, and the five-day low is established at 1.12143. Broadening the view, the 20-day high sits at 1.16533, and the 20-day low matches the five-day low at 1.12143. For further updates on this pair, you can visit the EUR/USD analysis page.