How will today's Eurozone Retail Sales data affect the EUR/USD forecast today?

Eurozone year-over-year Retail Sales data releases at 09:00 UTC, with estimates pointing to a 1% figure against a previous 0.6%. This high-impact release provides fresh data points for the euro as EUR/USD currently trades between S1 at 1.11674 and the daily pivot at 1.12139.

What key technical levels should traders watch for EUR/USD today?

The nearest support is S1 at 1.11674, while the nearest resistance is the daily pivot at 1.12139. A break below S1 would open the way to S2 at 1.11138, whereas a break above R1 at 1.12675 would open the way to R2 at 1.1314.

How are European fiscal concerns influencing the Euro to Dollar rate?

Recent newsflow highlights mounting fiscal risks in France alongside shifting interest rate expectations between the ECB and the Federal Reserve. Media sentiment metrics currently show a bullish share of 53%, while the independent opportunity reading maintains a bearish score of -23.

EUR/USD Forecast Today: Pair Locked in Multi-Timeframe Downtrend

Daily outlook Bearish bias Oct 6, 2026, 06:05 UTC

Sophia BennettSenior FX Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD momentum remains firmly bearish across all timeframes during the Asia session. Eurozone retail sales and central bank speakers stand as the next scheduled catalysts.

City towers and bridges beside a river at sunset

Price1.12116

Day change-0.08%

Day range1.12103 - 1.12304

ATR (14)0.00585

Resistance	Level	Support	Level
R3	1.13676	S1	1.11674
R2	1.13140	S2	1.11138
R1	1.12675	S3	1.10673
Previous day high	1.12604	Previous day low	1.11603
20-day high	1.16533	20-day low	1.11603
Daily pivot 1.12139. Data as of 2026-10-06 06:01 UTC; price from a live feed, levels computed from the previous completed daily bar.

EUR/USD 1-hour chart with the daily pivot at 1.12139, R1 1.12675, R2 1.13140, S1 1.11674, S2 1.11138 and the bullish and bearish scenario paths — EUR/USD, 1-hour candles with the daily pivot levels, the range between nearest support and resistance, and both scenario paths. Data as of 2026-10-06 06:01 UTC.

Euro Trading Near Daily Low in Asia Session

As the Asia session continues ahead of the London open at 07:00 UTC, EUR/USD sits at 1.12116, down 0.08% on the day. Price action has held within a tight intraday range between the day low at 1.12103 and the day high at 1.12304. This 20.1-pip span accounts for 34% of the 14-day Average True Range of 58.5 pips. The pair is currently positioned between S1 at 1.11674 and the daily pivot at 1.12139.

Downward Momentum Dominates Across Timeframes

Trend indicators signal persistent weakness across the board, with no signs of near-term divergence. The daily, four-hour, and one-hour timeframes all maintain a clear downward state. On the daily chart, price rests firmly below the 200-period exponential moving average of 1.15826, underlining the broader bearish market structure. The 14-day Relative Strength Index on the daily timeframe sits at a low of 19, indicating deep bearish momentum. This directional bias shows uniform alignment, presenting no conflicting trend signals between the higher and lower timeframes.

Technical Levels: Pivots and Ranges to Watch

The nearest resistance is the daily pivot at 1.12139, located just 2.3 pips above the current price. On the downside, the nearest support is S1 at 1.11674, positioned 44.2 pips away. The previous day's trading registered a high of 1.12604 and a low of 1.11603. Looking at the performance over recent weeks, the 5-day range spans from a peak high of 1.13795 down to a low of 1.11603. The broader 20-day historical range registered an extended high of 1.16533 and logged a low of 1.11603. Round numbers bracket the current trading price, with the 1.12 mark directly below and the 1.125 level waiting above.

Breakout Scenarios for the Sessions Ahead

A break above R1 at 1.12675 would open the way to R2 at 1.1314; a move back below the daily pivot at 1.12139 would invalidate this bullish setup. Conversely, a break below S1 at 1.11674 would open the way to S2 at 1.11138; a move back above the daily pivot at 1.12139 would invalidate the bearish case.

Retail Sales Data and Central Bank Speakers on Deck

Today's economic calendar brings high-impact Eurozone year-over-year Retail Sales at 09:00 UTC, which serves as a major focus for the session, with estimates pointing to a 1% print against a previous 0.6%. The medium-impact month-over-month retail sales reading will release simultaneously, estimated at 0.2% compared to the prior -0.6%. The US ADP Employment Change 4-week average follows at 12:15 UTC. The session also features central bank speeches, including the ECB's Cipollone and Elderson at 13:00 UTC, and the Fed's Williams and Bowman at 13:05 UTC and 14:45 UTC respectively. Tomorrow's schedule includes German Industrial Production at 06:00 UTC alongside further ECB commentary.

Recent newsflow, as reported by Forexcom and FX Street, highlights mounting fiscal risks in France and shifting central bank rate expectations. News sentiment metrics indicate a bullish share of 53% and a media mood of 100, while the independent opportunity reading registers a bearish score of -23. In the futures market, data as of the week to September 29 shows large speculators were net short EUR/USD, and speculators added to net short EUR/USD over the reporting period. As context from the bond market, US Treasury yields at the daily close on October 5 placed the 2-year yield at 4.84%, up 1 basis point, and the 10-year yield at 5.31%, up 3 basis points.

Bottom Line

EUR/USD navigates the final hours of the Asia session entrenched in a multi-timeframe downtrend, constrained near its daily low. Incoming Eurozone retail data and scheduled central bank remarks could dictate whether the pair tests the nearest support at 1.11674 or reclaims the daily pivot at 1.12139.