EUR/USD Forecast Today: Key Levels Ahead of CPI and NFP Data

Daily outlook Bearish bias Oct 2, 2026, 06:05 UTC

Sophia BennettSenior FX Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD is consolidating in a tight range near 1.125 as the market prepares for high-impact Eurozone inflation numbers and the US Nonfarm Payrolls report today.

Current Stand and Volatility

During the Asian trading session, the EUR/USD rate is holding near the 1.125 mark, trading at 1.125. The pair is up 0.08% on the day, showing a gain of 0.00089 from the previous close. The daily trading range is currently 23.9 pips, bounded by a day high of 1.12548 and a day low of 1.12309. This daily volatility represents 44% of the 14-day Average True Range (ATR), which stands at 0.00546 (or 54.6 pips). Yesterday's session saw more significant volatility, with the price opening at 1.13239, falling to yesterday's low of 1.12143, and finishing at yesterday's close of 1.12411.

Trend Analysis and Technical Momentum

The technical structure for the pair shows clear downward alignment across key timeframes. On the daily chart, the trend is down, with the price trading below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 1.15879, the 50-day EMA of 1.14979, and the 20-day EMA of 1.14399. The H4 trend is also down, with the 20-period EMA at 1.1304 and the 50-period EMA at 1.13596. On the hourly (H1) chart, the bearish posture continues as the trend is down, and the 20-period EMA is at 1.12554, while the 50-period EMA is at 1.12859. The daily 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in deeply oversold territory, printing a value of 18.2. Check out our EUR/USD technical analysis for deeper technical setups.

Immediate Levels and Range Boundaries

To map the immediate boundaries, traders can utilize a pivot point calculator. The nearest technical resistance sits at the daily pivot of 1.12638, which is 13.8 pips above the current price. On the downside, the nearest technical support is the previous day low at 1.12143, which is 35.7 pips below current trading.

Looking at broader ranges, the 5-day high is located at 1.14103, and the 5-day low is down at 1.12143. Over a broader horizon, the 20-day high is positioned at 1.16533, while the 20-day low is located at 1.12143. Psychological levels also frame the current action, with 1.13 acting as a round level above and 1.125 acting as a round level below.

Bullish and Bearish Trading Scenarios

Using a conditional approach to risk mapping, we can define structural setups based on technical breaks.

• Bullish Scenario: A sustained break above the first resistance (R1) at 1.13134 would target the second resistance (R2) at 1.13856. This positive outlook would be invalidated if the price drops back below the daily pivot at 1.12638.
• Bearish Scenario: A drop and sustained break below the first support (S1) at 1.11916 would open the path toward the second support (S2) at 1.1142. If the price instead recovers and rises above the daily pivot at 1.12638, this bearish setup would be invalidated.

High-Impact Macro Drivers Today

The economic calendar today features high-impact data that could spark substantial volatility. In the Eurozone, the Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) is scheduled for release at 09:00 UTC and is estimated to come in at 2.5%, compared to a previous reading of 2.4%. Concurrently, the headline Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) is estimated at 3.6% against the previous 3.2%, alongside previous month-on-month readings of 0.4% for HICP and 0.2% for Core HICP. Eurozone policy speeches are also scheduled today, including Cipollone at 07:30 UTC, Vujčić at 11:30 UTC, and Nagel at 19:35 UTC.

In the US, the crucial Nonfarm Payrolls report is scheduled for release today at 12:30 UTC. The market estimates 90 additions today, down from the previous 162. Additional US labor data arriving at 12:30 UTC includes the Unemployment Rate, which is estimated to remain steady at 4.1%, and Average Hourly Earnings, which are estimated at 3.2% YoY (from a previous 3.1%) and 0.3% MoM (from a previous 0.3%). The Labor Force Participation Rate previously stood at 61.6%, and the U6 Underemployment Rate was at 7.7%, ahead of US Factory Orders MoM scheduled at 14:00 UTC with an estimate of 0.1% versus the previous 0.9%.

Themes in recent news coverage from publishers like FX Street, FXEmpire, and The Economic Times point to the US Dollar testing yearly highs amidst a global bond sell-off that keeps the Euro under pressure, while Action Forex notes the pair falling to multi-month lows. In the US bond market, yields at the close of yesterday, October 1, 2026, saw the 2-year yield at 4.78% and the 10-year yield at 5.24%. Speculator net futures positioning, as of the week to September 22, 2026, shows that speculators added to net short EUR/USD, with speculative positioning sitting in pair terms at net short EUR/USD, and the net contracts changing by -25341 to a total net short position of -52334 contracts.

Our independent news sentiment metrics show news coverage is leaning slightly bearish at 55% versus a bullish share of 45%, while the overall media mood remains at 100 out of 100. The opportunity score is currently at -28, reflecting a bearish reading, following an alert that the score shifted from 17 to -36 in the last 24 hours.

Bottom Line

EUR/USD is consolidating tightly near the 1.125 level as the Asian session progresses, reflecting a market in waiting. The clean alignment of bearish trends across daily, H4, and H1 timeframes suggests the path of least resistance remains downward. However, the upcoming high-impact inflation and labor reports could easily disrupt this setup if the data surprises the market, making the daily pivot at 1.12638 and yesterday's low of 1.12143 critical focal points for direction.