EUR/USD Holds Near 1.12467 as Eurozone Core Inflation Meets Estimates

Event reaction Bearish bias Oct 2, 2026, 10:06 UTC

Claire DuboisEuropean Markets Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD trades near 1.12467 after Eurozone core inflation matched expectations at 2.5%. Market attention now turns to today's US Nonfarm Payrolls release, with the pair's technical trend pointing downward.

Immediate Reaction to Eurozone Core Inflation

EUR/USD trades at 1.12467, up 0.05% on the day, following today's release of the EUR Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY). The metric came in at 2.5%, matching market estimates and printing slightly above the previous 2.4%. During the current London session, the bid stands at 1.12467 against an ask of 1.12484, leaving a spread of 1.7 pips. The pair sits below immediate resistance at the daily pivot of 1.12638, positioned 17.1 pips from current price, while immediate support is located at the previous day low of 1.12143.

Technical Trends and Volatility

The technical bias aligns with the downside, as EUR/USD maintains a downward trend across the daily, H4, and H1 timeframes. On the daily chart, price trades below the 200-day exponential moving average of 1.15879, with the 14-day RSI reading at 18.2. Shorter timeframes reflect the same structure, with the H4 20-period EMA at 1.12994 and the 50-period EMA at 1.13556.

Intraday price action spans from a low of 1.12309 to a high of 1.12687, generating a daily range of 37.8 pips. This range accounts for 69% of the 14-day average true range of 54.6 pips. Looking at recent performance, the 5-day window features a high at 1.14103 and a low at 1.12143, alongside a decline of -1.16%. The 20-day timeframe shows a high of 1.16533 and shares the same low of 1.12143, logging a 20-day change of -3.25%.

Directional Scenarios for EUR/USD

A bearish scenario would require a break below S1 at 1.11916, exposing a downside target of S2 at 1.1142. A move back up to the daily pivot at 1.12638 would invalidate this bearish view. On the other hand, a bullish setup triggers if buyers push price through R1 at 1.13134. Clearing this resistance would open the way to R2 at 1.13856, with the daily pivot at 1.12638 acting as the invalidation level for the long case.

Market Sentiment and Speculative Positioning

Recent news coverage discusses potential euro vulnerability linked to regional stress and French asset pricing, as reported by FX Street. Concurrently, outlets including FXEmpire and The Economic Times note a firm US dollar ahead of upcoming jobs data. The media mood stands at 100, and overall news sentiment operates on an elevated volume of 132% of the 90-day average. This news flow returns a 55% bearish and 45% bullish share, resulting in a bearish opportunity reading.

In the futures market, CFTC Commitments of Traders data as of the week to September 22 shows speculators added to net short EUR/USD. The net positioning reached a short 52,334 contracts, with large speculators holding 44.7% long and 55.3% short in pair terms.

Looming US Nonfarm Payrolls

Traders are preparing for today's dense US economic calendar, anchored by the High-impact Nonfarm Payrolls release at 12:30 UTC. The employment report is estimated to show 90 jobs added, down from the previous 162. Also scheduled today are the US Unemployment Rate, expected to hold at 4.1%, and Average Hourly Earnings (YoY), estimated at 3.2% compared to the prior 3.1%. The U6 Underemployment Rate, Labor Force Participation Rate, and Factory Orders (MoM) will supply further details, while the ECB's Vujčić and Nagel are set to deliver speeches today.

For context on US rates, the October 1 close of US Treasury yields saw the 2-year yield settle at 4.78%, down 10 basis points, and the 10-year yield finish at 5.24%, down 5 basis points. The 3-month yield registered at 4.17%, while the 2s10s yield curve gap closed at 46 basis points.