EUR/USD Forecast Today: Sinking Toward S1 Ahead of FOMC Minutes

Daily outlook Bearish bias Oct 7, 2026, 06:04 UTC

Sophia BennettSenior FX Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD trades heavily under the daily pivot at 1.12456, with a bearish bias across major timeframes. Action hangs on whether price can defend the S1 support at 1.12151 ahead of today's FOMC minutes.

EUR/USD Sinks as FOMC Minutes Loom

During the Asia session, EUR/USD trades at 1.12287, registering a decline of 0.26% or 0.00298 from the previous close. The market has carved out an intraday range moving from a low of 1.12267 to a high of 1.12622, spanning 35.5 pips. This day range captures 60% of the daily 14-period average true range of 59.6 pips. With the next shift coming when London opens at 07:00 UTC, EUR/USD sits firmly below yesterday's closing mark of 1.12585.

Intraday Trend: Sellers Dominate Near Daily Lows

The structural setup favors sellers, though the indicators show minor timeframes breaking sequence. The daily and 4-hour charts remain in a confirmed downward state. On the daily timeframe, price operates well below the 200-period exponential moving average of 1.158, while the 14-day relative strength index sits deeply depressed at 27. The 1-hour chart registers a mixed state, reflecting a temporary pause in the selling pressure.

Institutional positioning underscores the bearish lean. Commitments of Traders data as of the week to September 29 shows non-commercial participants held a net short EUR/USD position, as speculators added to net short EUR/USD over the reporting period. News coverage maintains a similar caution, carrying a 53% bearish share against 47% bullish, with an overall media mood at 100. The associated opportunity reading comes in at -29, categorized as bearish, while publications like FX Street and FXEmpire broadly track the euro's vulnerability and ongoing dollar strength.

Key Support and Resistance Zones in Play

At current levels, price remains trapped between S1 at 1.12151 and the daily pivot at 1.12456. The nearest support level lies directly below at S1, situated 13.6 pips away. Overhead, the daily pivot serves as the nearest resistance barrier at a distance of 16.9 pips. Traders mapping the wider structure will observe the previous day high at 1.1276 and the previous day low at 1.12022.

Examining broader historical bands, the 5-day range captures a high of 1.13795 and a low of 1.11603. The extended 20-day range maintains the same 1.11603 low but features a higher ceiling at 1.16533. Those utilizing pivot points will also track the key round levels framing the pair, noting 1.12000 below and 1.12500 above.

How the FOMC Minutes Could Reshape Near-Term Momentum

Evaluating the technical pathways, the bearish scenario triggers on a definitive break below S1 at 1.12151. Such a move would open the way to the S2 target at 1.11718. A recovery back above the daily pivot at 1.12456 would invalidate the downward view.

On the other side of the ledger, a bullish scenario requires overcoming established resistance. A break above the R1 trigger at 1.12889 would open the way to the R2 target at 1.13194. This bullish case remains intact unless a move back below the daily pivot at 1.12456 invalidates it.

Ahead of Tomorrow: Looking Forward to ECB Accounts

Event risk dominates the schedule today, culminating in the high-impact FOMC Minutes release slated for 18:00 UTC. Earlier in the session, the ECB's Vujčić is scheduled to deliver a speech at 07:20 UTC, with a second appearance set for 17:30 UTC. As background context to dollar valuations, US Treasury yields at the close of October 6 recorded the 2-year yield at 4.79%, down 5 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 5.27%, down 4 basis points.

Tomorrow brings its own slate of economic catalysts, starting with the German Trade Balance at 06:00 UTC, carrying an estimate of 19 against a previous reading of 21.3. Following that, an Eurogroup Meeting occurs at 08:00 UTC, with the Fed's Waller speaking at 08:30 UTC and the ECB's Lane at 10:00 UTC. The session concludes with the high-impact ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts dropping at 11:30 UTC, providing fresh inputs for ongoing EUR/USD analysis.

EUR/USD enters the European morning heavily weighted toward the downside, caught beneath the daily pivot at 1.12456. The overriding technical structure and positioning data support the prevailing weakness. Immediate direction hinges on whether the pair tests the S1 floor ahead of the high-impact US monetary policy updates.