EUR/USD News Today: Downward Trend Persists Under 1.1400 Pivot

Market news Bearish bias Sep 24, 2026, 04:32 UTC

Sophia BennettSenior FX Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD trades with a heavy tone at 1.13795 during the Asian session, constrained by overhead resistance at the 1.14001 daily pivot. Technical trends point downward across all major timeframes as markets await incoming German IFO data and US initial jobless claims.

Yields and rate expectations set the backdrop

Trading in the Asian session, EUR/USD sits at 1.13795, down 0.01% on the day. Action Forex reports on rising expectations for an October Federal Reserve rate hike alongside a breakout in US Treasury yields. These are current topics being reported in the newsflow, not demonstrated drivers of price. Context from the bond market shows US Treasury yields closed on September 23 with the 2-year yield at 4.85%, up 14 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 5.11%, up 15 basis points. These yield figures offer a measure of interest rate expectations rather than a direct cause for today's exchange rate movements.

News sentiment from an independent provider shows a 58% bearish share against 42% bullish, alongside a media mood score of 79 and a bearish opportunity reading. This reflects the tone of media coverage rather than a directional price forecast. Looking at futures positioning, large speculators were net short EUR/USD as of the week to September 15. The weekly CFTC data indicates speculators reduced net short EUR/USD exposure, providing a snapshot of past sentiment rather than future action.

EUR/USD technicals map a downward trajectory

The intraday action has been muted, charting a range of 18.7 pips, which represents 38% of the 49.6-pip 14-day ATR. The day high currently stands at 1.13867, with the day low at 1.1368. Price remains bracketed between key round levels, holding below 1.14 and above 1.135. Zooming out to the 5-day window, the market recorded a high of 1.14971 and a low of 1.13694. The broader 20-day timeframe shows a high of 1.16593 and shares the same low at 1.13694.

Trend indicators are uniformly down across the daily, H4, and H1 timeframes. On the daily chart, price sits below the 200-period EMA, accompanied by a 14-period RSI of 26.5. Immediate resistance sits at the daily pivot at 1.14001. On the downside, the nearest support is the previous day low at 1.13694.

Key technical scenarios and scheduled data

In a bearish scenario, a decline reaching the S1 trigger at 1.13498 opens the way to the S2 target at 1.1319. A rebound that clears the daily pivot at 1.14001 would invalidate this view. Conversely, a bullish setup requires a break above the R1 trigger at 1.14309 to target R2 at 1.14812. A slide back below the daily pivot at 1.14001 would invalidate the bullish perspective.

Traders monitoring the economic calendar face a heavy data slate today. Early European hours feature the German IFO Current Assessment, Business Climate, and Expectations readings, all scheduled for 08:00 UTC. From the US, Initial Jobless Claims drop at 12:30 UTC, followed by the New Home Sales Change at 14:00 UTC. Several central bank figures are scheduled to speak today, starting with the ECB's Schnabel at 07:15 UTC and Lane at 09:00 UTC. Fed speakers include Williams at 08:10 UTC, Hammack at 12:50 UTC, and Paulson at 13:00 UTC.