EUR/USD Forecast Today: Pair Nears Support Amid Broad Downtrend

Daily outlook Bearish bias Sep 25, 2026, 06:02 UTC

Sophia BennettSenior FX Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD trades lower with all major timeframes showing a downtrend. Support at 1.1359 and resistance at the 1.13787 daily pivot point frame the immediate outlook.

EUR/USD Tests Lower Boundaries in the Asia Session

During the Asia session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.13745, down 0.04% from the previous close. The pair opened at 1.13772, printing a day high at 1.13816 and a day low at 1.13675. This narrow session range spans 14.1 pips, accounting for 29% of the 14-day Average True Range of 48.9 pips, suggesting constrained volatility so far.

Broad Downtrend Controls Momentum

The technical bias across multiple timeframes leans bearish. On the daily chart, EUR/USD trades in a clear downtrend below its 200-period exponential moving average of 1.15977, with the 20-period and 50-period EMAs sitting at 1.15133 and 1.15348. The four-hour chart confirms this downward pressure, showing a downtrend with the 20-period EMA at 1.14025 and the 50-period EMA at 1.14533. The one-hour chart also maintains a downtrend, positioning the 20-period and 50-period EMAs at 1.1375 and 1.1389. Meanwhile, the daily Relative Strength Index reads 26.4, placing momentum on the weaker side of the scale.

Approaching the Make-or-Break Support Zone

The live EUR/USD rate faces nearest resistance at the daily pivot point of 1.13787, which is 4.2 pips above current price action. To the downside, the nearest support level is S1 at 1.1359, located 15.5 pips away. Yesterday's trading formed a previous day high of 1.13984 and a previous day low of 1.13585.

Looking at the broader market structure, the 5-day range is defined by a high of 1.14951 and a low of 1.13585. The 20-day market window extends further, with its high reaching 1.16576 and the same low established at 1.13585. Traders may also monitor the round numbers below 1.135 and above 1.14 as psychological boundaries.

Potential Breakout and Breakdown Scenarios for the Session

If buyers gain traction, a break above the R1 resistance at 1.13989 would open the way to a target at R2 of 1.14186. A move back below the daily pivot at 1.13787 would invalidate that view.

Conversely, a sustained move below the S1 support trigger at 1.1359 could clear the path toward a target of S2 at 1.13388. This bearish case would be invalidated if price rises above the daily pivot at 1.13787.

US Durable Goods and Consumer Sentiment Data

On today's economic calendar, Spain reports Gross Domestic Product data at 07:00 UTC, with estimates pointing to a 0.7% reading compared to the previous 0.6%. Later today, a speech by the ECB's Vujčić is scheduled for 18:00 UTC.

Today's US data slate begins at 09:15 UTC with a speech from the Fed's Williams. At 12:30 UTC today, the market will process US Durable Goods Orders, estimated at -0.4% against a previous 1.1%, alongside Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation, forecast at 0.6% versus a prior 0.4%. At the same time, the Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft report is expected at 0.5%, following the previous 0.2%, and Durable Goods Orders ex Defense is due, previously at 1.3%. Moving to 14:00 UTC, the US releases the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, estimated at 47.6 compared to the previous 47.8, along with the Michigan Consumer Expectations Index, previously at 45.8. Additionally, the UoM 1-year and 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations are both estimated at 4.6% and 3.4%, respectively. Finally, the Fed's Hammack is set to speak at 18:00 UTC.

In the newsflow, coverage highlights the Euro nearing support zones against the US Dollar amid pressure from rising Treasury yields, as reported by outlets including FX Street and FXEmpire. Media tone shows a bullish share of 60% and a media mood score of 75, though the opportunity reading remains neutral at -10. As context, US Treasury yields on September 24 showed the 2-year yield at 4.87%, up 2 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 5.18%, up 7 basis points. As of the week to September 15, large speculators were net short EUR/USD, and speculators reduced net short EUR/USD over the reporting period.

Bottom Line

EUR/USD trades with a bearish alignment across the major timeframes as the market waits for today's US Durable Goods figures. The immediate technical structure hinges on resistance at the 1.13787 daily pivot and support at 1.1359. A clear break of either boundary could dictate the momentum for the remainder of the session.