EUR/USD Forecast Today: Euro Holds Below 1.1400 Pivot

Daily outlook Bearish bias Sep 24, 2026, 06:09 UTC

Sophia BennettSenior FX Analyst · ForexR analyst

EUR/USD trades at 1.13793 in the Asia session, holding a bearish trend across the daily, H4, and H1 timeframes. Market participants are looking ahead to today's German IFO surveys and US Initial Jobless Claims.

Where EUR/USD Stands Today: Euro Under Technical Pressure

During the Asia session, the EUR/USD live rate is trading at 1.13793, down 0.01% on the day. The session has seen the pair print an intraday range between a low of 1.1368 and a high of 1.13867, trading just under the previous close of 1.13805. This intraday movement of 18.7 pips represents 38% of the 14-day ATR, which stands at 0.00496.

Trend and Momentum: Aligned Downside Signals Across Timeframes

A look at EUR/USD technical analysis across multiple timeframes reveals a consistent bearish structure. On the daily chart, the trend is down, with the pair holding below its major moving averages, including the 20-period EMA at 1.15274, the 50-period EMA at 1.15412, and the 200-period EMA at 1.15995. The daily 14-period RSI stands in oversold territory at 26.5.

Shorter timeframes align with this downward momentum. The H4 chart indicates a downward trend state, with its 20-period EMA at 1.14264 and 50-period EMA at 1.14749. On the H1 timeframe, the trend is also down, guided by the 20-period EMA at 1.1389 and the 50-period EMA at 1.1413. Because the daily, H4, and H1 timeframes all agree on a downward trend, technical momentum remains firmly negative.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Pivots and Multi-Day Ranges

For technical levels, the previous day low of 1.13694 stands as the nearest support, located 9.9 pips below the current spot price. On the upside, the daily pivot at 1.14001 represents the nearest resistance, situated 20.8 pips above current trading levels. Traders tracking major structural boundaries will note the 5-day high at 1.14971 and the 5-day low at 1.13694. Over the wider 20-day timeframe, the boundaries are defined by a high of 1.16593 and a low of 1.13694.

Should the pair break out of these short-term limits, standard pivot points indicate further levels to monitor. Below the current price, potential support targets include S1 at 1.13498, S2 at 1.1319, and S3 at 1.12687. On the resistance side, upside levels are marked at R1 at 1.14309, R2 at 1.14812, and R3 at 1.1512. Psychological round levels also frame current action, with the level at 1.14 situated above and the level at 1.135 situated below.

Key Scenarios and Market Reactions to Watch

For a bullish correction to gain traction, a break above the R1 trigger at 1.14309 would open the path to the R2 target at 1.14812. This positive scenario would be invalidated if the price drops back below the daily pivot at 1.14001.

Conversely, a bearish continuation could materialize if the market breaches the S1 trigger at 1.13498, which would target the S2 level at 1.1319. This downward outlook would be invalidated if the market rises back above the daily pivot at 1.14001.

Market Catalysts: German IFO, ECB Speeches, and US Jobless Claims

Today's economic calendar features several key events that could influence price action. In Europe, the ECB's Schnabel is scheduled to speak today at 07:15 UTC, followed by Lane today at 09:00 UTC. At 08:00 UTC today, Germany will release the IFO Business Climate index (estimated at 89, up from the previous 88.8), the IFO Current Assessment (estimated at 89, up from 88.5 previously), and IFO Expectations (estimated at 89.3 against 89.1 prior). Tomorrow at 06:00 UTC, the German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey is expected to print at -27.4, compared to a previous -26.6, and the Spanish Gross Domestic Product is expected to show quarterly growth of 0.7% tomorrow at 07:00 UTC, up from 0.6%.

For the US session, Initial Jobless Claims are scheduled for release today at 12:30 UTC, with analysts expecting 201 versus a previous reading of 196. The New Home Sales Change is also set for 14:00 UTC today, with the previous figure showing a 10.5% contraction. US Federal Reserve speeches are also on the agenda today, starting with Williams today at 08:10 UTC (who is also scheduled to speak tomorrow at 09:15 UTC), Hammack today at 12:50 UTC, and Paulson today at 13:00 UTC.

Looking at broader themes in the newsflow, coverage from FX Street, Action Forex, and FXEmpire suggests that rising US sovereign yields and shifting rate hike expectations may support the US Dollar relative to the Euro. Additionally, commentaries from Forexcom and UOB focus on upcoming trade discussions and nearby long-term support targets. Independent news sentiment shows a bullish share of 42% and a bearish share of 58%, resulting in a media mood of 79 out of 100 and a bearish opportunity score of -40. In the US bond market, yields at the close on September 23, 2026, saw the 2-year Treasury yield rise 14 basis points to 4.85% and the 10-year yield gain 15 basis points to 5.11%, while the 3-month yield closed at 4.19%. Furthermore, CFTC Commitments of Traders data as of the week to September 15, 2026, shows that large speculators held a net short EUR/USD position of -26,993 contracts, which was a reduction in net short EUR/USD positions from the previous week's net short of -42,616 contracts.

Euro to US Dollar Outlook: Bottom Line

The EUR/USD pair remains locked in a clear downward trend across daily, H4, and H1 timeframes. Immediate resistance is found at the daily pivot of 1.14001, while the nearest support lies at the previous day low of 1.13694. Key macroeconomic reports out of Germany and the US today will likely determine whether the pair attempts a recovery toward the pivot or continues its broader slide.