USD/JPY Forecast Today: Mixed Trends Unfold in Asia
Daniel TanAsia-Pacific Market Analyst · ForexR analyst
USD/JPY lacks clear daily direction as shorter-term gains meet resistance. Traders will watch the 157.506 high ahead of key Federal Reserve speeches.
| Resistance | Level | Support | Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| R3 | 158.645 | S1 | 156.747 |
| R2 | 158.076 | S2 | 156.178 |
| R1 | 157.696 | S3 | 155.798 |
| Previous day high | 157.506 | Previous day low | 156.557 |
| 20-day high | 160.370 | 20-day low | 152.867 |
| Daily pivot 157.127. Data as of 2026-09-22 05:39 UTC; price from a live feed, levels computed from the previous completed daily bar. | |||
USD/JPY Testing Initial Resistance in the Asia Session
USD/JPY trades at 157.464 in the Asia session, up 0.147 from the previous close. The pair leans against immediate resistance with mixed momentum signals across the timeframes. So far today, the market has moved within a 39-pip range between 157.157 and 157.547, taking up just 29 percent of the 14-day ATR of 132.9 pips.
Trend and Momentum Disconnect
Price action reveals conflicting signals between the near-term and daily charts. The H1 and H4 timeframes display an upward trend. However, the daily trend remains mixed, as the current price holds below the 200-day EMA at 157.695. The daily RSI sits near the midpoint at 51.6, confirming the lack of clear directional momentum. Because the shorter timeframes point up while the daily chart shows a mixed state, our technical bias is neutral.
Key Levels Defining the Range
The nearest resistance stands 4.2 pips away at the previous day high of 157.506, closely aligned with the 157.5 round level. On the downside, the nearest support rests at the daily pivot of 157.127, offering a 33.7-pip buffer from current pricing, just above the 157 round number. Zooming out to recent extremes, the five-day high is parked at 158.032, while the five-day low sits at 154.189. The broader 20-day boundaries span from a low of 152.867 to a high of 160.37.
Bullish and Bearish Scenarios
For the bullish setup, a confirmed break above R1 at 157.696 would clear the path toward R2 at 158.076. A move back below the daily pivot at 157.127 would invalidate this view.
On the bearish side, sellers need to drive the price below the S1 support at 156.747 to open the way toward S2 at 156.178. This bearish case would be negated if the price crosses back above the daily pivot at 157.127.
Fundamental Catalysts and Context
Recent news coverage discusses a short-term upward structural shift in the pair amidst broader dollar resilience, according to publishers like Forexcom and FXEmpire. News sentiment measures a media mood of 61 out of 100, with a 64 percent bullish share in coverage. The data provider's opportunity reading stands at a score of 40, leaning bullish. In the futures market, Commitments of Traders data as of the week to September 15 shows large speculators were net short USD/JPY, and week over week, speculators added to net short USD/JPY.
Today's economic calendar brings the US ADP Employment Change 4-week average at 12:15 UTC, following a previous print of 16.25. Later, the market will monitor Federal Reserve speeches, with Williams at 14:05 UTC, Jefferson at 14:20 UTC, and Barkin at 17:00 UTC. As background context, US Treasury yields closed on September 21 with the 2-year yield at 4.76 percent, and the 10-year yield at 4.96 percent, down 5 basis points.
The Bottom Line
USD/JPY enters the session caught between upward intraday momentum and a stalled daily trend. Immediate direction hinges on the previous day high at 157.506, which caps the current advance. Traders can watch the daily pivot at 157.127 as the defining line for both breakout and breakdown setups.
FAQ
What is the main resistance level for USD/JPY today?
The nearest resistance level for USD/JPY is the previous day high at 157.506, which is located 4.2 pips above the current price. Beyond that, the R1 pivot point at 157.696 serves as the trigger for potential bullish breakouts.
Is the long-term trend for USD/JPY still bullish?
The daily trend for USD/JPY is currently mixed, with the price holding below the 200-day EMA of 157.695 and the daily RSI near neutral at 51.6. However, the shorter H1 and H4 timeframes show an upward trend.
What news could affect USD/JPY today?
Today's calendar features the US ADP Employment Change 4-week average at 12:15 UTC. This will be followed by speeches from Federal Reserve officials Williams, Jefferson, and Barkin throughout the afternoon, which could provide fundamental cues for the US Dollar.
